Johnson & Johnson

JNJ · Healthcare · · USD

256.31 USD

0.00 (-1.08%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 19:08 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 94

Momentum 70

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 71

Liquidity 48

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	40%
Trend & RS	93.5	20%
Momentum	70.2	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	47.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	256.36
Stop Loss	244.42 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	268.30 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	280.24 (+9.3%)

ATR(14)	5.97 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	11.94
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	36.4	-0.54
Momentum	70.2	+0.81
Quality	50.5	+0.02
Composite	52.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 7.89 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	29.7	22.0	+35% above
P/B Ratio	7.6	4.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.1%	1.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

148.82

Market Price

256.31

Upside

-41.9%

Margin of Safety	-72.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	85,178,300,851
Terminal Value PV	273,075,350,911
Total Enterprise Value	358,253,651,762

Assumptions

Base FCF	16,619,425,968
Growth Rate (5yr)	9.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

54.65%

Full Kelly

27.33%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 86/100. Estimated win rate 66%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

59.23

RSI(14)

7.7892

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (-4.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+3.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	59.23	NEUTRAL
Macd	7.7892	BULLISH
Ma Cross	235.63 / 219.19	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.28x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	269.43
Bollinger Upper	272.35
SMA(200)	219.19
SMA(50)	235.63
SMA(20)	247.92
Current Price	256.31
Bollinger Lower	223.49
52-Week Low	154.80
ATR(14)	5.97

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.28x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	260.25	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	245.72	Base line
Senkou A	252.99	Leading span A
Senkou B	244.27	Leading span B
Cloud	244.27 – 252.99	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	256.36	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	223.24	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH