Monster Beverage Corporation

MNST · Consumer Defensive · · USD

43.82 USD

0.00 (-0.59%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 59

Momentum 54

Fundamental 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 58

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	58.8	30%
Momentum	54.1	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	57.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	43.82
Stop Loss	41.66 (4.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	45.98 (+4.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	48.14 (+9.9%)

ATR(14)	1.08 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	2.16
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	14.9	-1.41
Momentum	54.1	+0.17
Quality	76.6	+1.06
Composite	48.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	40.6	18.0	+125% above
P/B Ratio	9.2	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

28.07

Market Price

43.82

Upside

-35.9%

Margin of Safety	-56.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	11,458,023,727
Terminal Value PV	43,527,127,403
Total Enterprise Value	54,985,151,130

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,692,620,706
Growth Rate (5yr)	20.2%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

38.98%

Full Kelly

19.49%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

33.58

RSI(14)

-0.6856

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-6.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	33.58	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.6856	BEARISH
Ma Cross	47.39 / 41.78	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.27x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	50.17
Bollinger Upper	49.32
SMA(200)	41.78
SMA(50)	47.39
SMA(20)	46.43
Current Price	43.82
Bollinger Lower	43.53
52-Week Low	31.04
ATR(14)	1.08

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.24x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.27x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	46.45	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	46.45	Base line
Senkou A	46.45	Leading span A
Senkou B	46.91	Leading span B
Cloud	46.45 – 46.91	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	43.82	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	48.19	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH