Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK · Healthcare · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
77
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
82
Momentum
75
Fundamental
72
Macro
54
Liquidity
55
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 82.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 75.4 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 72.2 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 55.1 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 146.73 |
| Stop Loss | 137.19 (6.5%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 156.27 (+6.5%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 165.81 (+13.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.77 (3.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 9.54 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 26.1 | -0.96 | |
| Momentum | 75.4 | +1.02 | |
| Quality | 27.2 | -0.91 | |
| Composite | 42.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
6.00
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 148.2 | 22.0 | +574% above |
| P/B Ratio | 8.1 | 4.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% | 1.5% | Above avg |
Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
13.73
vs
Market Price
146.73
Upside
-90.6%
| Margin of Safety | -968.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 8,666,011,065 |
| Terminal Value PV | 25,176,584,750 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 33,842,595,815 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,952,474,585 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 4.7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
49.77%
Full Kelly
24.89%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
51.41
RSI(14)
0.6122
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
80
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+17.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Healthcare) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 52d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -1.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 51.41 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.6122 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 146.17 / 126.51 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.72x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 156.92 |
| Bollinger Upper | 151.61 |
| SMA(200) | 126.51 |
| SMA(50) | 146.17 |
| SMA(20) | 145.83 |
| Current Price | 146.73 |
| Bollinger Lower | 140.04 |
| 52-Week Low | 85.80 |
| ATR(14) | 4.77 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.01x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 146.29 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 146.41 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 146.35 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 146.54 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 146.35 – 146.54 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 146.73 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 144.30 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 2/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
12 bars
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 140.04 – 151.61 | KC: 138.33 – 153.32
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 119.17
Anchor: 2025-11-06 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+23.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MRK
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 361.73B |
| P/E (TTM) | 148.21 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 8.06 |
| EPS | 0.99 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 4.7% |
| Profit Margin | 3.6% |
| ROE | 5.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 119.93 |
| Current Ratio | 1.35 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.12 |
Trading Data
146.73
Open
146.73
Day High
146.73
Day Low
7.46M
Volume (0.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)