Match Group, Inc.
MTCH · Communication Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
52
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
76
Momentum
58
Fundamental
40
Macro
22
Liquidity
51
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 75.6 | 30% |
| Momentum | 58.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 39.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 51.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 39.16 |
| Stop Loss | 36.00 (8.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 42.32 (+8.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 45.48 (+16.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.58 (4.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 3.16 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 76.2 | +1.05 | |
| Momentum | 58.1 | +0.33 | |
| Quality | 49.2 | -0.03 | |
| Composite | 61.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.21
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.4 | 18.0 | -26% below |
| P/B Ratio | -64.2 | 3.0 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% | 1.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Communication Services median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
31.36
vs
Market Price
39.16
Upside
-19.9%
| Margin of Safety | -24.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,138,261,153 |
| Terminal Value PV | 4,996,838,190 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 7,135,099,343 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 533,329,064 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
34.3%
Full Kelly
17.15%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 52/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.2%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
39.25
RSI(14)
-0.4414
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
88
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+10.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Communication Servic) |
| RS New High | No (12d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +10.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 39.25 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.4414 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 42.01 / 36.42 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.18x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 46.67 |
| Bollinger Upper | 47.58 |
| SMA(200) | 36.42 |
| SMA(50) | 42.01 |
| SMA(20) | 42.93 |
| Current Price | 39.16 |
| Bollinger Lower | 38.28 |
| 52-Week Low | 28.81 |
| ATR(14) | 1.58 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
100%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.42x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.17x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Stopping Volume | 2.29x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.46x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.18x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 42.02 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 42.50 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 42.26 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 42.50 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 42.26 – 42.50 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 39.16 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 39.93 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 38.28 – 47.58 | KC: 40.54 – 45.32
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 13 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 35.88
Anchor: 2026-02-04 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+9.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MTCH
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 8.91B |
| P/E (TTM) | 13.37 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -64.20 |
| EPS | 2.93 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -2.5% |
| Profit Margin | 20.7% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | 1.79 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.46 |
Trading Data
39.16
Open
39.16
Day High
39.16
Day Low
4.43M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)