S&P 500 7718.60 -0.38%
NASDAQ 26506.99 -0.29%
TASI 11024.73 -0.40%
Oil (WTI) 91.48 +0.00%
Oil (Brent) 96.28 +0.00%
VIX 15.30 +5.30%
Gold 4476.60 +0.00%
USD/SAR 3.76 +0.02%

Match Group, Inc.

MTCH · Communication Services · · USD
41.86 USD
0.00 (-1.34%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

79
/ 100
Technical 100
Trend & RS 91
Momentum 88
Fundamental 42
Macro 64
Liquidity 36
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 100.0 20%
Trend & RS 91.1 30%
Momentum 88.5 15%
Fundamental 41.5 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 36.0 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 41.86
Stop Loss 39.44 (5.8%)
Target 1 (1:1) 44.28 (+5.8%)
Target 2 (2:1) 46.70 (+11.6%)
ATR(14) 1.21 (2.9%)
Risk per Share 2.42
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 73.6 +0.94
Momentum 88.5 +1.54
Quality 47.7 -0.09
Composite 69.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 1.37 — Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 14.8 18.0 -18% below
P/B Ratio -40.6 3.0 Inline
Dividend Yield 1.9% 1.0% Above avg

Comparing against Communication Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
30.18
vs
Market Price
41.86
Upside
-27.9%
Margin of Safety -38.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)2,109,876,387
Terminal Value PV4,930,506,686
Total Enterprise Value7,040,383,073

Assumptions

Base FCF526,249,283
Growth Rate (5yr)2.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
51.18%
Full Kelly
25.59%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 79/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
59.58
RSI(14)
1.0326
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

77
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+17.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Communication Servic)
RS New High No (2d since high)
Sector Outperformance +19.5% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 59.58 NEUTRAL
Macd 1.0326 BULLISH
Ma Cross 39.2 / 34.41 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.62x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High43.47
Bollinger Upper44.37
SMA(200)34.41
SMA(50)39.2
SMA(20)40.01
Current Price41.86
Bollinger Lower35.66
52-Week Low28.81
ATR(14)1.21

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 0.99x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.45x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.13x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.15x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.62x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 41.83 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 39.84 Base line
Senkou A 40.83 Leading span A
Senkou B 38.80 Leading span B
Cloud 38.80 – 40.83 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 41.86 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 39.41 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 35.66 – 44.37  |  KC: 38.33 – 41.7

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 9
Regular Bullish RSI 18
Regular Bearish RSI 24

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 34.43 Anchor: 2026-02-04 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +21.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/MTCH

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap9.76B
P/E (TTM)14.84
Forward P/EN/A
P/B-40.60
EPS2.82

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth-1.2%
Profit Margin20.2%
ROEN/A
Debt/EquityN/A
Current Ratio1.72
Dividend Yield1.9%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.32

Trading Data

41.86
Open
41.86
Day High
41.86
Day Low
1.88M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Match Group (MTCH) After Tinder AI Push And Product Reset Leaves Valuation In Focus
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
What Match Group (MTCH)'s AI-Powered Tinder "Sparks" Push Means For Shareholders
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Match Group (MTCH) Pushes AI Matchmaking Into Europe
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
2 Momentum Stocks with Solid Fundamentals and 1 We Turn Down
StockStory · 2026-09-04
Should You Buy Reddit Stock Because Its Renewal Risk Is Already Priced In?
Trefis · 2026-09-03
Match Group: Tinder’s AI Push Speeds Releases, Powers Smarter Recommendations
MarketBeat · 2026-09-03
Why Is Match Group (MTCH) Up 11.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks · 2026-09-03
Penguin Stock Jumps 143% YTD: Is There More Room for Growth?
Zacks · 2026-09-02

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —