NIO Inc.

NIO · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

3.80 USD

0.00 (-1.55%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 33

Trend & RS 19

Momentum 6

Fundamental 6

Macro 64

Liquidity 63

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	33.3	20%
Trend & RS	19.4	30%
Momentum	5.8	15%
Fundamental	5.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	63.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	3.80
Stop Loss	3.48 (8.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	4.12 (+8.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	4.44 (+16.8%)

ATR(14)	0.16 (4.2%)
Risk per Share	0.32
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	50.0	+0.00
Momentum	5.2	-1.79
Quality	8.8	-1.65
Composite	21.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 1 /9 — Weak

✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score -0.27 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	N/A	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	15.2	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

16.0%

Full Kelly

8.0%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 30/100. Estimated win rate 49%, avg win 6.8%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

24.5

RSI(14)

-0.2201

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-33.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-33.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	24.5	OVERSOLD
Macd	-0.2201	BEARISH
Ma Cross	4.64 / 5.21	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	1.4x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	8.02
Bollinger Upper	4.94
SMA(200)	5.21
SMA(50)	4.64
SMA(20)	4.38
Current Price	3.80
Bollinger Lower	3.81
52-Week Low	3.71
ATR(14)	0.16

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Sign of Weakness

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	2.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.4x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	4.11	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	4.31	Base line
Senkou A	4.21	Leading span A
Senkou B	4.46	Leading span B
Cloud	4.21 – 4.46	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	3.80	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	4.88	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH