NIO Inc.
NIO · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)
24
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
26
Momentum
10
Fundamental (0%)
6
Macro
24
Liquidity
58
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 25.9 | 20% |
| Momentum | 9.6 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 5.6 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 57.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 3.20 |
| Stop Loss | 2.92 (8.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 3.48 (+8.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 3.76 (+17.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.14 (4.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 0.28 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 50.0 | +0.00 | |
| Momentum | 8.7 | -1.65 | |
| Quality | 8.8 | -1.65 | |
| Composite | 22.5 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
1
/9 —
Weak
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
-0.30
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 13.1 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.43%
Recommended Size
9.63%
Full Kelly
4.81%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 24/100. Estimated win rate 47%, avg win 6.4%, avg loss 4.5%. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
37.72
RSI(14)
-0.1066
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
27
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-27.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -33.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 37.72 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.1066 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 3.56 / 4.87 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.69x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 7.06 |
| Bollinger Upper | 3.59 |
| SMA(200) | 4.87 |
| SMA(50) | 3.56 |
| SMA(20) | 3.35 |
| Current Price | 3.20 |
| Bollinger Lower | 3.11 |
| 52-Week Low | 3.10 |
| ATR(14) | 0.14 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.03x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.8x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.5x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.69x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 3.25 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 3.37 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 3.31 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 3.80 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 3.31 – 3.80 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 3.20 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 3.40 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 3.11 – 3.59 | KC: 3.14 – 3.56
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 20 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 3.72
Anchor: 2026-08-13 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-14.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/NIO
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 8.02B |
| P/E (TTM) | N/A |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 13.13 |
| EPS | -0.25 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 69.1% |
| Profit Margin | -4.2% |
| ROE | -45.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 203.22 |
| Current Ratio | 1.02 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.90 |
Trading Data
3.20
Open
3.20
Day High
3.20
Day Low
51.49M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)