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NIKE, Inc.

NKE · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
38.40 USD
0.00 (-0.95%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)

32
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 17
Momentum 18
Fundamental 83
Macro 64
Liquidity 49
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 20%
Trend & RS 17.0 30%
Momentum 18.3 15%
Fundamental 83.3 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 49.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 38.40
Stop Loss 36.28 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 40.52 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 42.64 (+11.0%)
ATR(14) 1.06 (2.8%)
Risk per Share 2.12
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 66.6 +0.66
Momentum 18.3 -1.27
Quality 46.5 -0.14
Composite 43.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 5.03 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 18.3 18.0 Inline
P/B Ratio 3.8 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 4.3% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
25.92
vs
Market Price
38.40
Upside
-32.5%
Margin of Safety -48.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)8,311,059,418
Terminal Value PV22,852,447,144
Total Enterprise Value31,163,506,562

Assumptions

Base FCF2,019,546,398
Growth Rate (5yr)2.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
17.39%
Full Kelly
8.69%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 32/100. Estimated win rate 49%, avg win 6.9%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
41.52
RSI(14)
-0.8492
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

5
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-14.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (59d since high)
Sector Outperformance -14.2% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 41.52 NEUTRAL
Macd -0.8492 BEARISH
Ma Cross 41.1 / 50.4 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.74x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High76.97
Bollinger Upper41.68
SMA(200)50.4
SMA(50)41.1
SMA(20)39.49
Current Price38.40
Bollinger Lower37.3
52-Week Low37.95
ATR(14)1.06

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 0.86x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.8x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.75x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.07x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.74x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 38.62 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 40.26 Base line
Senkou A 39.44 Leading span A
Senkou B 41.17 Leading span B
Cloud 39.44 – 41.17 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 38.40 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 41.27 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 37.3 – 41.68  |  KC: 37.92 – 41.06

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bullish RSI 7
Regular Bullish MACD 7

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 38.47 Anchor: 2026-08-27 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -0.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/NKE

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap56.97B
P/E (TTM)18.29
Forward P/EN/A
P/B3.83
EPS2.10

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth-1.1%
Profit Margin6.7%
ROE22.1%
Debt/Equity74.29
Current Ratio1.96
Dividend Yield4.3%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.11

Trading Data

38.40
Open
38.40
Day High
38.40
Day Low
20.18M
Volume (0.8x avg)

Recent News (8)

NIKE's China Business: Recovery Story or Ongoing Challenge?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
Has Nike's Stock Bottomed Out?
Motley Fool · 2026-09-07
The S&P 100 ETF Just Dumped Nike and Colgate for 4 AI Stocks. Here’s What That Means for Your Portfolio
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-07
Nike Exits S&P 100 After Nearly 18 Years. Dell, SanDisk and 2 Tech Giants Take Its Place
GuruFocus.com · 2026-09-07
62-Year-Old Retail Giant Gets Booted Off S&P 500
GuruFocus.com · 2026-09-07
Should You Avoid Nike Stock, Even at a 12-Year Low?
Motley Fool · 2026-09-07
Lululemon founder Chip Wilson reportedly divorcing wife, adding more uncertainty
Investing.com · 2026-09-06
Nike Exits the S&P 100 Index. 4 Tech Stocks Move In
BeInCrypto · 2026-09-06

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —