Okta, Inc.
OKTA · Technology · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
61
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
79
Momentum
65
Fundamental
78
Macro
23
Liquidity
59
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 78.8 | 30% |
| Momentum | 65.2 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.3 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 59.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 171.16 |
| Stop Loss | 143.72 (16.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 198.60 (+16.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 226.04 (+32.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 13.72 (8.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 27.44 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 30.0 | -0.80 | |
| Momentum | 65.2 | +0.61 | |
| Quality | 32.4 | -0.70 | |
| Composite | 42.5 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 103.1 | 28.0 | +268% above |
| P/B Ratio | 4.3 | 6.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
29.46
vs
Market Price
171.16
Upside
-82.8%
| Margin of Safety | -480.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,212,940,846 |
| Terminal Value PV | 3,937,723,026 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 5,150,663,872 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 232,162,201 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 10.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
39.97%
Full Kelly
19.98%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
35.96
RSI(14)
-2.6084
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
96
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+20.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (19d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +9.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 35.96 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -2.6084 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 196.89 / 126.4 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.13x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 235.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 241.42 |
| SMA(200) | 126.4 |
| SMA(50) | 196.89 |
| SMA(20) | 206.8 |
| Current Price | 171.16 |
| Bollinger Lower | 172.18 |
| 52-Week Low | 62.66 |
| ATR(14) | 13.72 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
57%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 1.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 6.53x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.71x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 198.55 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 201.69 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 200.12 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 181.30 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 181.30 – 200.12 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 171.16 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 212.63 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 172.18 – 241.42 | KC: 185.27 – 228.33
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 145.04
Anchor: 2026-04-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+18.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/OKTA
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 29.92B |
| P/E (TTM) | 103.11 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.29 |
| EPS | 1.66 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.6% |
| Profit Margin | 9.6% |
| ROE | 4.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.76 |
| Current Ratio | 1.52 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.72 |
Trading Data
171.16
Open
171.16
Day High
171.16
Day Low
5.86M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)