Okta, Inc.

OKTA · Technology · · USD

138.63 USD

0.00 (-6.86%)

● Updated 2026-07-11 20:15 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 100

Momentum 95

Fundamental 83

Macro 75

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	20%
Trend & RS	99.6	30%
Momentum	95.0	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	74.8	20%
Liquidity	46.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	138.63
Stop Loss	124.15 (10.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	153.11 (+10.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	167.59 (+20.9%)

ATR(14)	7.24 (5.2%)
Risk per Share	14.48
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	22.7	-1.09
Momentum	95.0	+1.80
Quality	30.1	-0.79
Composite	49.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 35.64 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	99.7	28.0	+256% above
P/B Ratio	3.5	6.0	Below

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

25.28

Market Price

138.63

Upside

-81.8%

Margin of Safety	-448.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	990,170,202
Terminal Value PV	3,248,878,990
Total Enterprise Value	4,239,049,192

Assumptions

Base FCF	186,436,775
Growth Rate (5yr)	11.2%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

56.69%

Full Kelly

28.35%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 90/100. Estimated win rate 67%, avg win 10.4%, avg loss 3.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

61.86

RSI(14)

10.4722

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+93.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+85.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	61.86	NEUTRAL
Macd	10.4722	BULLISH
Ma Cross	108.8 / 90.21	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.99x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	153.20
Bollinger Upper	155.48
SMA(200)	90.21
SMA(50)	108.8
SMA(20)	128.81
Current Price	138.63
Bollinger Lower	102.14
52-Week Low	62.66
ATR(14)	7.24

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

50%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.99x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	139.35	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	130.10	Base line
Senkou A	134.72	Leading span A
Senkou B	113.09	Leading span B
Cloud	113.09 – 134.72	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	138.63	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	124.65	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH