O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)
46
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
51
Momentum
48
Fundamental (0%)
44
Macro
24
Liquidity
39
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 51.4 | 20% |
| Momentum | 48.4 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 38.6 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 89.36 |
| Stop Loss | 84.83 (5.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 93.88 (+5.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 98.39 (+10.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.26 (2.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.52 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 50.1 | +0.01 | |
| Momentum | 48.4 | -0.07 | |
| Quality | 28.2 | -0.87 | |
| Composite | 42.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.4 | 18.0 | +52% above |
| P/B Ratio | -34.4 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
53.72
vs
Market Price
89.45
Upside
-39.9%
| Margin of Safety | -66.5% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 10,434,467,458 |
| Terminal Value PV | 32,787,939,369 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 43,222,406,827 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,098,416,186 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 8.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
29.13%
Full Kelly
14.56%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
51.19
RSI(14)
0.9559
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
53
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+1.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 2d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -1.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 51.19 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.9559 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 87.32 / 90.4 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 102.46 |
| Bollinger Upper | 92.9 |
| SMA(200) | 90.4 |
| SMA(50) | 87.32 |
| SMA(20) | 89.44 |
| Current Price | 89.45 |
| Bollinger Lower | 85.97 |
| 52-Week Low | 82.59 |
| ATR(14) | 2.26 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.8x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 2.05x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.02x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 90.22 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 88.38 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 89.30 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 88.29 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 88.29 – 89.30 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 89.36 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 84.90 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 85.97 – 92.9 | KC: 86.06 – 92.82
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 30 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 88.06
Anchor: 2026-07-15 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+1.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ORLY
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 71.97B |
| P/E (TTM) | 27.44 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -34.39 |
| EPS | 3.26 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.8% |
| Profit Margin | 14.3% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | 0.77 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.55 |
Trading Data
89.45
Open
89.45
Day High
89.45
Day Low
437.7K
Volume (0.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)