O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

87.89 USD

+0.00 (0.58%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 30

Momentum 46

Fundamental (0%) 72

Macro 64

Liquidity 44

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	40%
Trend & RS	30.1	20%
Momentum	45.5	20%
Fundamental	72.2	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	43.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	87.89
Stop Loss	83.93 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	91.85 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	95.81 (+9.0%)

ATR(14)	1.98 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	3.96
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	43.7	-0.25
Momentum	45.5	-0.18
Quality	27.9	-0.89
Composite	39.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.94 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	27.9	18.0	+55% above
P/B Ratio	-39.1	2.5	Inline

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

50.42

Market Price

87.89

Upside

-42.6%

Margin of Safety	-74.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	9,943,183,645
Terminal Value PV	30,841,429,736
Total Enterprise Value	40,784,613,381

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,038,581,196
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

13.13%

Full Kelly

6.57%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 27/100. Estimated win rate 48%, avg win 6.6%, avg loss 4.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

44.48

RSI(14)

-0.597

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-7.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-7.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	44.48	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.597	BEARISH
Ma Cross	89.01 / 92.17	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.82x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	108.72
Bollinger Upper	93.41
SMA(200)	92.17
SMA(50)	89.01
SMA(20)	89.84
Current Price	87.89
Bollinger Lower	86.27
52-Week Low	82.59
ATR(14)	1.98

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION B Confidence

67%

Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.38x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.16x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	88.92	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	90.26	Base line
Senkou A	89.59	Leading span A
Senkou B	88.36	Leading span B
Cloud	88.36 – 89.59	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	87.89	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	89.35	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH