Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated
PEG · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
43
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
49
Momentum
47
Fundamental
38
Macro
22
Liquidity
60
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 49.0 | 30% |
| Momentum | 46.7 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 37.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 59.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 73.10 |
| Stop Loss | 70.32 (3.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 75.88 (+3.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 78.66 (+7.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.39 (1.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.78 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 68.0 | +0.72 | |
| Momentum | 46.7 | -0.13 | |
| Quality | 34.6 | -0.62 | |
| Composite | 49.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.57
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.6 | 16.0 | +29% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.1 | 1.8 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.7% | 3.5% | Above avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
43.70
vs
Market Price
73.10
Upside
-40.2%
| Margin of Safety | -67.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,809,976,754 |
| Terminal Value PV | 15,975,362,462 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 21,785,339,216 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,411,795,661 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
27.18%
Full Kelly
13.59%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
56.44
RSI(14)
0.7564
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
47
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+2.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Utilities) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -6.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 56.44 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.7564 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 71.11 / 76.94 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.3x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 87.63 |
| Bollinger Upper | 74.71 |
| SMA(200) | 76.94 |
| SMA(50) | 71.11 |
| SMA(20) | 72.08 |
| Current Price | 73.10 |
| Bollinger Lower | 69.45 |
| 52-Week Low | 66.15 |
| ATR(14) | 1.39 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.52x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.51x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 73.15 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 70.62 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 71.88 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 70.33 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 70.33 – 71.88 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 73.10 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 67.89 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 69.45 – 74.71 | KC: 70.0 – 74.15
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 70.87
Anchor: 2026-09-25 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+3.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 36.44B |
| P/E (TTM) | 20.65 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.10 |
| EPS | 3.54 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -6.4% |
| Profit Margin | 14.3% |
| ROE | 10.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 148.40 |
| Current Ratio | 1.01 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.7% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.49 |
Trading Data
73.10
Open
73.10
Day High
73.10
Day Low
4.72M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)