PulteGroup, Inc.

PHM · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

124.45 USD

+0.00 (0.11%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 41

Momentum 50

Fundamental 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 40

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	40.8	30%
Momentum	50.0	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	39.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	124.45
Stop Loss	117.81 (5.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	131.09 (+5.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	137.73 (+10.7%)

ATR(14)	3.32 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	6.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	81.5	+1.26
Momentum	50.0	+0.00
Quality	64.3	+0.57
Composite	65.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 8.87 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.7	18.0	-29% below
P/B Ratio	1.8	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	84.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

120.86

Market Price

124.45

Upside

-2.9%

Margin of Safety	-3.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,139,586,150
Terminal Value PV	16,881,670,664
Total Enterprise Value	23,021,256,814

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,491,889,117
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

31.39%

Full Kelly

15.7%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 48/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 7.9%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.67

RSI(14)

-1.1547

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (+0.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.67	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.1547	BEARISH
Ma Cross	128.79 / 124.9	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.79x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	144.50
Bollinger Upper	133.46
SMA(200)	124.9
SMA(50)	128.79
SMA(20)	128.1
Current Price	124.45
Bollinger Lower	122.74
52-Week Low	108.49
ATR(14)	3.32

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION B Confidence

67%

Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.36x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	127.27	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	128.38	Base line
Senkou A	127.82	Leading span A
Senkou B	130.93	Leading span B
Cloud	127.82 – 130.93	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	124.45	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	126.47	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH