PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
63
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
60
Momentum
72
Fundamental (0%)
89
Macro
24
Liquidity
60
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 59.8 | 20% |
| Momentum | 71.7 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 60.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 132.00 |
| Stop Loss | 122.88 (6.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 141.12 (+6.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 150.24 (+13.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.56 (3.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 9.12 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 78.6 | +1.14 | |
| Momentum | 71.7 | +0.87 | |
| Quality | 63.4 | +0.54 | |
| Composite | 71.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
9.49
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.4 | 18.0 | -20% below |
| P/B Ratio | 1.9 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 77.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
115.55
vs
Market Price
135.15
Upside
-14.5%
| Margin of Safety | -17.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,869,920,978 |
| Terminal Value PV | 16,140,187,683 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 22,010,108,661 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,426,361,811 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
41.33%
Full Kelly
20.66%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 63/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
62.92
RSI(14)
4.1714
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
49
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+6.7% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 2d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | +0.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 62.92 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.1714 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 119.51 / 123.69 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.01x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 144.50 |
| Bollinger Upper | 137.47 |
| SMA(200) | 123.69 |
| SMA(50) | 119.51 |
| SMA(20) | 120.53 |
| Current Price | 135.15 |
| Bollinger Lower | 103.6 |
| 52-Week Low | 107.16 |
| ATR(14) | 4.56 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.26x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.01x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 129.11 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 123.52 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 126.31 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 123.52 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 123.52 – 126.31 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 132.00 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 115.73 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 103.6 – 137.47 | KC: 113.69 – 127.38
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 120.84
Anchor: 2026-10-14 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+9.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PHM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 25.74B |
| P/E (TTM) | 14.44 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.91 |
| EPS | 9.36 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -9.8% |
| Profit Margin | 11.2% |
| ROE | 13.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 18.43 |
| Current Ratio | 6.99 |
| Dividend Yield | 77.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.18 |
Trading Data
135.15
Open
135.15
Day High
135.15
Day Low
2.59M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)