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Philip Morris International Inc.

PM · Consumer Defensive · · USD
182.11 USD
+0.00 (6.50%)
● Updated 2026-05-12 12:48 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

70
/ 100
Technical 80
Trend & RS 71
Momentum 69
Fundamental 72
Macro 65
Liquidity 63
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 80.0 10%
Trend & RS 70.6 10%
Momentum 69.0 5%
Fundamental 72.2 40%
Macro 65.1 15%
Liquidity 62.6 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 182.11
Stop Loss 172.69 (5.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 191.53 (+5.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 200.95 (+10.3%)
ATR(14) 4.71 (2.6%)
Risk per Share 9.42
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 48.7 -0.05
Momentum 69.0 +0.76
Quality 43.5 -0.26
Composite 53.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average
✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 5.33 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 25.6 18.0 +42% above
P/B Ratio -28.4 2.5 Inline
Dividend Yield 3.2% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
118.46
vs
Market Price
182.11
Upside
-35.0%
Margin of Safety -53.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)44,385,045,318
Terminal Value PV140,240,455,006
Total Enterprise Value184,625,500,324

Assumptions

Base FCF8,852,614,245
Growth Rate (5yr)9.1%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
45.56%
Full Kelly
22.78%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
69.79
RSI(14)
2.8121
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

51
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY → FLAT (-5.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance +9.4% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 69.79 NEUTRAL
Macd 2.8121 BULLISH
Ma Cross 165.62 / 161.93 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger UPPER BAND
Volume 1.44x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High191.30
Bollinger Upper178.34
SMA(200)161.93
SMA(50)165.62
SMA(20)164.66
Current Price182.11
Bollinger Lower150.97
52-Week Low142.11
ATR(14)4.71

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-05-05 Normal 0.89x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06 Normal 0.94x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07 Normal 0.89x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08 Normal 0.96x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11 Normal 1.44x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 172.11 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 167.73 Base line
Senkou A 169.92 Leading span A
Senkou B 170.10 Leading span B
Cloud 169.92 – 170.10 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 182.11 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 160.34 Bullish
Alignment Score 3/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 150.97 – 178.34  |  KC: 157.56 – 171.76

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bullish RSI 15
Hidden Bearish RSI 21

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 163.57 Anchor: 2025-11-03 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +11.3%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/PM

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap283.83B
P/E (TTM)25.65
Forward P/EN/A
P/B-28.37
EPS7.10

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth9.1%
Profit Margin26.7%
ROEN/A
Debt/EquityN/A
Current Ratio0.98
Dividend Yield3.2%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.39

Trading Data

182.11
Open
182.11
Day High
182.11
Day Low
5.36M
Volume (1.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

These Are the 10 Largest Consumer Staples Stocks in May -- How to Pick the Top Investments
Motley Fool · 2026-05-12
Is It Too Late To Consider Philip Morris International (PM) After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-11
Philip Morris Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
Barchart · 2026-05-05
Want Passive Income For Life? 2 Dividend Stocks to Buy and Never Sell
Motley Fool · 2026-05-05
Vaping industry shares jump as Trump reportedly demands FDA approve flavored vapes
Investing.com · 2026-05-05
Is Philip Morris (PM) Quietly Repricing Risk to Power Its Smoke‑Free Pivot?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-05
A Look At Philip Morris International’s Valuation As Shares Show Recent Short Term Momentum
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-05
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Philip Morris International, Honeywell, Starbucks and United-Guardian
Zacks · 2026-05-04

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —