Philip Morris International Inc.

PM · Consumer Defensive · · USD

182.53 USD

0.00 (-1.96%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 71

Momentum 55

Fundamental 72

Macro 64

Liquidity 52

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	71.1	30%
Momentum	55.2	15%
Fundamental	72.2	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	52.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	182.53
Stop Loss	173.63 (4.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	191.43 (+4.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	200.33 (+9.8%)

ATR(14)	4.45 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	8.90
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	48.6	-0.06
Momentum	55.2	+0.21
Quality	42.4	-0.30
Composite	48.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.52 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	25.1	18.0	+39% above
P/B Ratio	-33.1	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	3.2%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

128.15

Market Price

182.53

Upside

-29.8%

Margin of Safety	-42.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	47,165,913,135
Terminal Value PV	152,574,926,321
Total Enterprise Value	199,740,839,456

Assumptions

Base FCF	9,077,364,669
Growth Rate (5yr)	10.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

40.94%

Full Kelly

20.47%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

40.57

RSI(14)

-0.4471

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-1.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	40.57	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.4471	BEARISH
Ma Cross	187.93 / 172.58	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.77x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	207.76
Bollinger Upper	194.74
SMA(200)	172.58
SMA(50)	187.93
SMA(20)	188.62
Current Price	182.53
Bollinger Lower	182.51
52-Week Low	142.11
ATR(14)	4.45

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.01x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	189.44	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	189.44	Base line
Senkou A	189.44	Leading span A
Senkou B	191.43	Leading span B
Cloud	189.44 – 191.43	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	182.53	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	190.82	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH