Philip Morris International Inc.
PM · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
66
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
86
Momentum
52
Fundamental (0%)
72
Macro
24
Liquidity
84
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 86.3 | 20% |
| Momentum | 52.2 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 72.2 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 83.6 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 195.50 |
| Stop Loss | 184.24 (5.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 206.76 (+5.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 218.02 (+11.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.63 (2.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 11.26 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 44.7 | -0.21 | |
| Momentum | 52.2 | +0.09 | |
| Quality | 42.3 | -0.31 | |
| Composite | 46.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
6.09
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.4 | 18.0 | +63% above |
| P/B Ratio | -39.6 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
98.28
vs
Market Price
201.50
Upside
-51.2%
| Margin of Safety | -105.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 38,764,068,723 |
| Terminal Value PV | 114,408,763,608 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 153,172,832,331 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 8,541,201,646 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 5.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
42.98%
Full Kelly
21.49%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
43.36
RSI(14)
2.3991
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
65
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+10.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (2d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -2.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 43.36 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.3991 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 195.47 / 181.69 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.03x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 214.35 |
| Bollinger Upper | 211.49 |
| SMA(200) | 181.69 |
| SMA(50) | 195.47 |
| SMA(20) | 203.03 |
| Current Price | 201.50 |
| Bollinger Lower | 194.57 |
| 52-Week Low | 146.35 |
| ATR(14) | 5.63 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.1x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.7x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.96x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.95x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.03x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 204.34 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 199.18 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 201.76 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 197.68 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 197.68 – 201.76 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 195.50 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 187.46 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
3 bars
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 194.57 – 211.49 | KC: 194.32 – 211.75
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 177.17
Anchor: 2025-12-04 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+10.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 314.06B |
| P/E (TTM) | 29.42 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -39.57 |
| EPS | 6.85 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.5% |
| Profit Margin | 24.8% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | 1.02 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.35 |
Trading Data
201.50
Open
201.50
Day High
201.50
Day Low
9.00M
Volume (2.0x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)