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TransDigm Group Incorporated

TDG · Industrials · · USD
1162.05 USD
+0.00 (0.36%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)

33
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 24
Momentum 40
Fundamental 46
Macro 64
Liquidity 43
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 20%
Trend & RS 23.9 30%
Momentum 39.7 15%
Fundamental 46.0 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 43.4 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 1162.05
Stop Loss 1106.91 (4.8%)
Target 1 (1:1) 1217.19 (+4.8%)
Target 2 (2:1) 1272.33 (+9.5%)
ATR(14) 27.57 (2.4%)
Risk per Share 55.14
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 36.7 -0.53
Momentum 39.7 -0.41
Quality 67.3 +0.69
Composite 47.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 1.82 — Grey Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 35.2 18.0 +96% above
P/B Ratio -6.9 3.0 Inline

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
936.32
vs
Market Price
1162.05
Upside
-19.4%
Margin of Safety -24.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)10,498,978,628
Terminal Value PV41,257,520,333
Total Enterprise Value51,756,498,961

Assumptions

Base FCF1,459,300,260
Growth Rate (5yr)22.5%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
18.57%
Full Kelly
9.28%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 33/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 7.0%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
36.78
RSI(14)
-23.8777
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

22
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-10.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance -6.4% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 36.78 NEUTRAL
Macd -23.8777 BEARISH
Ma Cross 1241.96 / 1269.36 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.6x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1463.03
Bollinger Upper1268.93
SMA(200)1269.36
SMA(50)1241.96
SMA(20)1202.59
Current Price1162.05
Bollinger Lower1136.25
52-Week Low1123.61
ATR(14)27.57

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.41x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.77x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.94x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.78x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.6x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 1185.20 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 1251.85 Base line
Senkou A 1218.53 Leading span A
Senkou B 1253.10 Leading span B
Cloud 1218.53 – 1253.10 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 1162.05 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 1254.38 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 1136.25 – 1268.93  |  KC: 1166.0 – 1239.18

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 1234.85 Anchor: 2026-04-01 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -5.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/TDG

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap64.23B
P/E (TTM)35.21
Forward P/EN/A
P/B-6.92
EPS33.00

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth22.5%
Profit Margin21.3%
ROEN/A
Debt/EquityN/A
Current Ratio3.02
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.89

Trading Data

1162.05
Open
1162.05
Day High
1162.05
Day Low
209.9K
Volume (0.5x avg)

Recent News (8)

TransDigm (TDG) Stock Looks Undervalued Despite Mixed Broader Checks
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —