Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTA · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

564.12 USD

+0.00 (1.26%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 22:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 84

Momentum 67

Fundamental 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 44

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	83.9	10%
Momentum	67.1	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	44.2	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	564.12
Stop Loss	526.84 (6.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	601.40 (+6.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	638.68 (+13.2%)

ATR(14)	18.64 (3.3%)
Risk per Share	37.28
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	45.2	-0.19
Momentum	67.1	+0.69
Quality	54.3	+0.17
Composite	55.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 8.87 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.5	18.0	+14% above
P/B Ratio	8.9	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

454.54

Market Price

564.12

Upside

-19.4%

Margin of Safety	-24.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,685,275,919
Terminal Value PV	14,749,526,346
Total Enterprise Value	19,434,802,265

Assumptions

Base FCF	939,638,183
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

46.4%

Full Kelly

23.2%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 71/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

63.24

RSI(14)

12.1199

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+16.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+16.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	63.24	NEUTRAL
Macd	12.1199	BULLISH
Ma Cross	505.67 / 556.3	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.71x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	714.97
Bollinger Upper	568.17
SMA(200)	556.3
SMA(50)	505.67
SMA(20)	532.76
Current Price	564.12
Bollinger Lower	497.36
52-Week Low	443.60
ATR(14)	18.64

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Sign of Strength

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 3.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.52x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.14x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	535.75	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	530.78	Base line
Senkou A	533.26	Leading span A
Senkou B	506.02	Leading span B
Cloud	506.02 – 533.26	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	564.12	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	512.83	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH