Ulta Beauty, Inc.
ULTA · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
73
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
80
Momentum
91
Fundamental
83
Macro
22
Liquidity
52
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 79.8 | 30% |
| Momentum | 91.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 83.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 52.3 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 649.80 |
| Stop Loss | 611.76 (5.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 687.84 (+5.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 725.88 (+11.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 19.02 (2.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 38.04 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 36.7 | -0.53 | |
| Momentum | 91.0 | +1.64 | |
| Quality | 54.3 | +0.17 | |
| Composite | 60.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
9.74
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.7 | 18.0 | +32% above |
| P/B Ratio | 10.5 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
454.04
vs
Market Price
649.80
Upside
-30.1%
| Margin of Safety | -43.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 4,680,159,128 |
| Terminal Value PV | 14,733,418,388 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 19,413,577,516 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 938,612,003 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 8.9% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
47.52%
Full Kelly
23.76%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 73/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
66.25
RSI(14)
23.5982
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
49
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+19.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +13.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 66.25 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 23.5982 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 573.69 / 552.37 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.26x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 714.97 |
| Bollinger Upper | 670.14 |
| SMA(200) | 552.37 |
| SMA(50) | 573.69 |
| SMA(20) | 615.78 |
| Current Price | 649.80 |
| Bollinger Lower | 561.42 |
| 52-Week Low | 443.60 |
| ATR(14) | 19.02 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.15x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.88x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.26x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 642.43 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 604.11 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 623.27 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 588.54 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 588.54 – 623.27 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 649.80 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 537.73 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 561.42 – 670.14 | KC: 587.75 – 643.81
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 6 | |
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 26 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 536.98
Anchor: 2026-06-30 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+21.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ULTA
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 27.78B |
| P/E (TTM) | 23.68 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 10.52 |
| EPS | 27.44 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.9% |
| Profit Margin | 9.3% |
| ROE | 46.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 95.47 |
| Current Ratio | 1.34 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.84 |
Trading Data
649.80
Open
649.80
Day High
649.80
Day Low
605.8K
Volume (1.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)