Union Pacific Corporation

UNP · Industrials · · USD

289.62 USD

+0.00 (0.16%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 71

Momentum 68

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	71.1	30%
Momentum	68.5	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	46.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	289.62
Stop Loss	277.26 (4.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	301.98 (+4.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	314.34 (+8.5%)

ATR(14)	6.18 (2.1%)
Risk per Share	12.36
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	35.5	-0.58
Momentum	68.5	+0.74
Quality	63.7	+0.55
Composite	55.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	23.5	18.0	+30% above
P/B Ratio	8.8	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.0%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

227.23

Market Price

289.62

Upside

-21.5%

Margin of Safety	-27.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	31,404,017,786
Terminal Value PV	103,585,544,726
Total Enterprise Value	134,989,562,512

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,864,713,462
Growth Rate (5yr)	11.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

41.01%

Full Kelly

20.5%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

41.01

RSI(14)

0.4131

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+2.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (30d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+6.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	41.01	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.4131	BEARISH
Ma Cross	292.36 / 257.78	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.55x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	315.99
Bollinger Upper	312.89
SMA(200)	257.78
SMA(50)	292.36
SMA(20)	298.34
Current Price	289.62
Bollinger Lower	283.79
52-Week Low	210.84
ATR(14)	6.18

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.58x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.3x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.55x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	299.19	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	299.19	Base line
Senkou A	299.19	Leading span A
Senkou B	285.87	Leading span B
Cloud	285.87 – 299.19	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	289.62	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	290.78	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL