Union Pacific Corporation
UNP · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
66
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
82
Momentum
57
Fundamental (0%)
78
Macro
24
Liquidity
88
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 81.5 | 20% |
| Momentum | 56.7 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 88.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 291.08 |
| Stop Loss | 277.99 (4.5%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 304.19 (+4.5%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 317.29 (+9.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 6.55 (2.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 13.10 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 44.0 | -0.24 | |
| Momentum | 56.7 | +0.27 | |
| Quality | 64.7 | +0.59 | |
| Composite | 55.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
5.72
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.2 | 18.0 | +29% above |
| P/B Ratio | 8.0 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
275.08
vs
Market Price
297.95
Upside
-7.7%
| Margin of Safety | -8.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 36,171,650,944 |
| Terminal Value PV | 127,246,020,317 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 163,417,671,261 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 6,092,838,307 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 15.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
43.04%
Full Kelly
21.52%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
47.91
RSI(14)
4.6089
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
78
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+5.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (2d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 47.91 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.6089 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 286.69 / 270.55 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 315.99 |
| Bollinger Upper | 310.75 |
| SMA(200) | 270.55 |
| SMA(50) | 286.69 |
| SMA(20) | 294.51 |
| Current Price | 297.95 |
| Bollinger Lower | 278.26 |
| 52-Week Low | 218.20 |
| ATR(14) | 6.55 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
75%
Selling Climax
Acc: 3.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.26x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.9x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.08x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.2x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.02x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 300.03 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 291.47 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 295.75 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 290.48 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 290.48 – 295.75 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 291.08 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 278.28 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 278.26 – 310.75 | KC: 284.64 – 304.38
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 259.60
Anchor: 2025-11-06 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+12.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/UNP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 177.00B |
| P/E (TTM) | 23.24 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 8.04 |
| EPS | 12.82 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 15.3% |
| Profit Margin | 28.9% |
| ROE | 38.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 141.30 |
| Current Ratio | 1.16 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.84 |
Trading Data
297.95
Open
297.95
Day High
297.95
Day Low
5.82M
Volume (2.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)