United Parcel Service, Inc.

UPS · Industrials · · USD

102.29 USD

0.00 (-1.17%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 56

Momentum 52

Fundamental 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 47

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	56.0	10%
Momentum	52.5	5%
Fundamental	67.4	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	46.9	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	102.29
Stop Loss	98.07 (4.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	106.51 (+4.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	110.73 (+8.2%)

ATR(14)	2.11 (2.1%)
Risk per Share	4.22
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	62.5	+0.50
Momentum	52.5	+0.10
Quality	42.9	-0.28
Composite	52.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.96 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	19.0	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	5.8	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	6.4%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

84.33

Market Price

102.29

Upside

-17.6%

Margin of Safety	-21.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,515,169,616
Terminal Value PV	47,675,582,194
Total Enterprise Value	63,190,751,810

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,225,199,839
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

40.55%

Full Kelly

20.28%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

42.79

RSI(14)

-0.6726

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-8.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (35d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	42.79	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.6726	BULLISH
Ma Cross	106.52 / 101.91	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.74x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	122.41
Bollinger Upper	105.8
SMA(200)	101.91
SMA(50)	106.52
SMA(20)	103.33
Current Price	102.29
Bollinger Lower	100.85
52-Week Low	82.00
ATR(14)	2.11

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	104.52	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	104.27	Base line
Senkou A	104.39	Leading span A
Senkou B	108.70	Leading span B
Cloud	104.39 – 108.70	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	102.29	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	102.58	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH