Valero Energy Corporation

VLO · Energy · · USD

284.66 USD

+0.00 (1.21%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 98

Momentum 88

Fundamental 89

Macro 71

Liquidity 39

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	10%
Trend & RS	98.0	10%
Momentum	87.7	5%
Fundamental	88.9	40%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	39.3	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	285.31
Stop Loss	266.47 (6.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	304.15 (+6.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	322.99 (+13.2%)

ATR(14)	9.42 (3.3%)
Risk per Share	18.84
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	68.1	+0.72
Momentum	87.7	+1.51
Quality	36.5	-0.54
Composite	64.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 8.24 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.8	10.0	+108% above
P/B Ratio	3.5	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.7%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

205.91

Market Price

284.66

Upside

-27.7%

Margin of Safety	-38.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,228,112,747
Terminal Value PV	45,912,690,557
Total Enterprise Value	61,140,803,304

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,254,383,291
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

50.56%

Full Kelly

25.28%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

67.94

RSI(14)

8.3159

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+10.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 2d since high
Sector Outperformance	+16.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	67.94	NEUTRAL
Macd	8.3159	BULLISH
Ma Cross	253.07 / 206.72	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.08x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	285.99
Bollinger Upper	288.51
SMA(200)	206.72
SMA(50)	253.07
SMA(20)	258.79
Current Price	284.66
Bollinger Lower	229.08
52-Week Low	130.78
ATR(14)	9.42

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.54x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.21x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.08x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	272.71	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	259.36	Base line
Senkou A	266.03	Leading span A
Senkou B	256.08	Leading span B
Cloud	256.08 – 266.03	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	285.31	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	261.45	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH