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Valero Energy Corporation

VLO · Energy · · USD
281.25 USD
0.00 (-0.58%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 16:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

89
/ 100
Technical 100
Trend & RS 98
Momentum 85
Fundamental 89
Macro 78
Liquidity 51
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 100.0 20%
Trend & RS 97.6 30%
Momentum 85.4 15%
Fundamental 88.9 10%
Macro 78.4 20%
Liquidity 50.9 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 281.25
Stop Loss 261.67 (7.0%)
Target 1 (1:1) 300.83 (+7.0%)
Target 2 (2:1) 320.41 (+13.9%)
ATR(14) 9.79 (3.5%)
Risk per Share 19.58
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 68.4 +0.74
Momentum 85.4 +1.42
Quality 36.5 -0.54
Composite 63.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 8.18 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 20.5 10.0 +105% above
P/B Ratio 3.5 1.5 Above
Dividend Yield 1.7% 4.0% Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
205.91
vs
Market Price
281.25
Upside
-26.8%
Margin of Safety -36.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)15,228,112,747
Terminal Value PV45,912,690,557
Total Enterprise Value61,140,803,304

Assumptions

Base FCF3,254,383,291
Growth Rate (5yr)6.6%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
56.43%
Full Kelly
28.22%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 89/100. Estimated win rate 67%, avg win 10.4%, avg loss 3.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
66.06
RSI(14)
7.376
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

93
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+6.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High Near 3-month high 1d since high
Sector Outperformance +14.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 66.06 NEUTRAL
Macd 7.376 BULLISH
Ma Cross 252.14 / 206.11 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.75x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High284.28
Bollinger Upper284.39
SMA(200)206.11
SMA(50)252.14
SMA(20)257.43
Current Price281.25
Bollinger Lower230.47
52-Week Low130.78
ATR(14)9.79

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-02 Normal 0.63x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06 Normal 0.53x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.68x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 1.16x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.75x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 268.14 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 258.50 Base line
Senkou A 263.32 Leading span A
Senkou B 255.23 Leading span B
Cloud 255.23 – 263.32 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 281.25 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 258.26 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 230.47 – 284.39  |  KC: 242.43 – 272.42

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 25
Hidden Bullish RSI 30

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 202.62 Anchor: 2025-08-11 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +38.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/VLO

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap83.51B
P/E (TTM)20.53
Forward P/EN/A
P/B3.50
EPS13.70

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth6.6%
Profit Margin3.6%
ROE15.8%
Debt/Equity42.66
Current Ratio1.58
Dividend Yield1.7%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.55

Trading Data

281.25
Open
281.25
Day High
281.25
Day Low
2.50M
Volume (0.8x avg)

Recent News (8)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —