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Valero Energy Corporation

VLO · Energy · · USD
370.72 USD
+0.00 (0.01%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

85
/ 100
Technical 80
Trend & RS 100
Momentum 95
Fundamental 89
Macro 64
Liquidity 56
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 80.0 20%
Trend & RS 99.6 30%
Momentum 94.9 15%
Fundamental 88.9 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 56.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 370.72
Stop Loss 349.38 (5.8%)
Target 1 (1:1) 392.06 (+5.8%)
Target 2 (2:1) 413.40 (+11.5%)
ATR(14) 10.67 (2.9%)
Risk per Share 21.34
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 71.3 +0.85
Momentum 94.9 +1.80
Quality 46.2 -0.15
Composite 70.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 9.92 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 15.4 10.0 +54% above
P/B Ratio 4.3 1.5 Above
Dividend Yield 1.3% 4.0% Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
747.73
vs
Market Price
370.72
Upside
+101.7%
Margin of Safety +50.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)42,455,915,695
Terminal Value PV172,834,885,640
Total Enterprise Value215,290,801,335

Assumptions

Base FCF5,525,903,832
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
54.07%
Full Kelly
27.03%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 85/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
75.27
RSI(14)
15.6631
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

98
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+40.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance +25.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 75.27 OVERBOUGHT
Macd 15.6631 BULLISH
Ma Cross 314.47 / 238.0 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.21x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High375.11
Bollinger Upper375.96
SMA(200)238.0
SMA(50)314.47
SMA(20)347.47
Current Price370.72
Bollinger Lower318.98
52-Week Low153.60
ATR(14)10.67

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.5x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.16x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.21x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.07x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.21x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 355.06 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 333.28 Base line
Senkou A 344.17 Leading span A
Senkou B 305.15 Leading span B
Cloud 305.15 – 344.17 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 370.72 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 312.90 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 318.98 – 375.96  |  KC: 331.59 – 363.34

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 21

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 221.32 Anchor: 2025-09-05 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +67.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/VLO

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap106.74B
P/E (TTM)15.45
Forward P/EN/A
P/B4.27
EPS23.99

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth51.7%
Profit Margin5.4%
ROE27.6%
Debt/Equity40.15
Current Ratio1.64
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.57

Trading Data

370.72
Open
370.72
Day High
370.72
Day Low
2.84M
Volume (1.0x avg)

Recent News (8)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —