Walmart Inc.

WMT · Consumer Defensive · · USD

107.14 USD

0.00 (-1.18%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 28

Momentum 32

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 62

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	28.3	20%
Momentum	32.5	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	61.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	107.14
Stop Loss	102.08 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	112.20 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	117.26 (+9.4%)

ATR(14)	2.53 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	5.06
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	22.5	-1.10
Momentum	32.5	-0.70
Quality	32.8	-0.69
Composite	29.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 10.25 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	38.8	18.0	+116% above
P/B Ratio	9.0	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	92.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

40.27

Market Price

107.14

Upside

-62.4%

Margin of Safety	-166.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	80,639,381,521
Terminal Value PV	239,864,039,449
Total Enterprise Value	320,503,420,970

Assumptions

Base FCF	17,571,438,774
Growth Rate (5yr)	5.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

20.43%

Full Kelly

10.22%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 35/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 7.1%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

45.96

RSI(14)

-1.7296

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-14.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-12.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	45.96	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.7296	BULLISH
Ma Cross	110.67 / 118.15	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.74x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	135.16
Bollinger Upper	118.52
SMA(200)	118.15
SMA(50)	110.67
SMA(20)	108.81
Current Price	107.14
Bollinger Lower	99.1
52-Week Low	98.88
ATR(14)	2.53

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

50%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.22x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	105.81	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	109.37	Base line
Senkou A	107.59	Leading span A
Senkou B	111.13	Leading span B
Cloud	107.59 – 111.13	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	107.14	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	110.93	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH