ACWA Power Company

2082.SR · Utilities · · SAR

199.90 SAR

+0.00 (8.00%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 09:46 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 60

Momentum 62

Fundamental 67

Macro 71

Liquidity 42

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	59.8	30%
Momentum	61.7	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	70.9	20%
Liquidity	41.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	199.90
Stop Loss	188.00 (6.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	211.80 (+6.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	223.70 (+11.9%)

ATR(14)	5.95 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	11.90
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	25.3	-0.99
Momentum	56.1	+0.24
Quality	48.9	-0.04
Composite	43.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	85.4	16.0	+434% above
P/B Ratio	5.2	1.8	Above

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

29.91

Market Price

199.90

Upside

-85.0%

Margin of Safety	-568.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,035,998,084
Terminal Value PV	16,874,639,097
Total Enterprise Value	22,910,637,181

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,434,137,859
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

39.51%

Full Kelly

19.75%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

75.07

RSI(14)

3.3437

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+7.9% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Utilities)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	-3.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	75.07	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	3.3437	BULLISH
Ma Cross	169.71 / 195.74	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	5.2x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	304.00
Bollinger Upper	189.9
SMA(200)	195.74
SMA(50)	169.71
SMA(20)	173.41
Current Price	199.90
Bollinger Lower	156.92
52-Week Low	0.00
ATR(14)	5.95

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

57%

Sign of Strength Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 1.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	No Demand	0.54x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-06	Normal	0.53x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	2.36x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	3.17x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	5.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	182.60	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	181.05	Base line
Senkou A	181.83	Leading span A
Senkou B	175.60	Leading span B
Cloud	175.60 – 181.83	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	199.90	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	165.90	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH