ACWA Power Company

2082.SR · Utilities · · SAR

196.30 SAR

0.00 (-1.80%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:46 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 49

Momentum 52

Fundamental 67

Macro 73

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	10%
Trend & RS	48.6	10%
Momentum	52.5	5%
Fundamental	66.7	40%
Macro	72.7	15%
Liquidity	46.0	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	194.40
Stop Loss	182.56 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	206.24 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	218.08 (+12.2%)

ATR(14)	5.92 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	11.84
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	25.7	-0.97
Momentum	52.5	+0.10
Quality	48.9	-0.04
Composite	42.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	83.9	16.0	+424% above
P/B Ratio	5.1	1.8	Above

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

29.91

Market Price

196.30

Upside

-84.8%

Margin of Safety	-556.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,035,998,323
Terminal Value PV	16,874,639,763
Total Enterprise Value	22,910,638,086

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,434,137,916
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

38.31%

Full Kelly

19.16%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

67.98

RSI(14)

4.4921

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+3.6% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Utilities)
RS New High	No (1d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	67.98	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.4921	BULLISH
Ma Cross	170.17 / 195.59	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	0.44x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	304.00
Bollinger Upper	193.43
SMA(200)	195.59
SMA(50)	170.17
SMA(20)	174.45
Current Price	196.30
Bollinger Lower	155.48
52-Week Low	149.40
ATR(14)	5.92

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

57%

Sign of Strength Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 1.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	0.54x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	2.41x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	3.24x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	5.3x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.44x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	182.60	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	181.05	Base line
Senkou A	181.83	Leading span A
Senkou B	175.60	Leading span B
Cloud	175.60 – 181.83	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	194.40	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	160.70	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH