Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company

2270.SR · Consumer Defensive · · SAR

230.50 SAR

+0.00 (0.00%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:45 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 33

Trend & RS 47

Momentum 55

Fundamental 67

Macro 73

Liquidity 29

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	33.3	20%
Trend & RS	47.4	30%
Momentum	54.8	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	72.7	20%
Liquidity	28.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	232.50
Stop Loss	221.84 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	243.16 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	253.82 (+9.2%)

ATR(14)	5.33 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	10.66
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	65.0	+0.60
Momentum	54.8	+0.19
Quality	55.2	+0.21
Composite	58.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.6	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	4.7	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	6.9%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

148.77

Market Price

230.50

Upside

-35.5%

Margin of Safety	-54.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,424,859,381
Terminal Value PV	3,329,711,039
Total Enterprise Value	4,754,570,420

Assumptions

Base FCF	355,391,070
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

33.73%

Full Kelly

16.87%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 52/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

72.0

RSI(14)

2.2901

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+1.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+4.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	72.0	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	2.2901	BULLISH
Ma Cross	209.45 / 233.75	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	0.39x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	300.40
Bollinger Upper	228.21
SMA(200)	233.75
SMA(50)	209.45
SMA(20)	212.57
Current Price	230.50
Bollinger Lower	196.93
52-Week Low	187.00
ATR(14)	5.33

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

55%

Sign of Strength Buying Climax

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 1.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	0.45x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	2.01x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	0.41x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	6.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.39x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	218.40	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	218.40	Base line
Senkou A	218.40	Leading span A
Senkou B	210.15	Leading span B
Cloud	210.15 – 218.40	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	232.50	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	210.00	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH