Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company

2270.SR · Consumer Defensive · · SAR

230.00 SAR

0.00 (-0.22%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:45 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 47

Momentum 57

Fundamental 67

Macro 76

Liquidity 60

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	20%
Trend & RS	47.0	30%
Momentum	56.6	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	75.8	20%
Liquidity	59.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	228.00
Stop Loss	216.36 (5.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	239.64 (+5.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	251.28 (+10.2%)

ATR(14)	5.82 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	11.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	65.1	+0.60
Momentum	51.4	+0.06
Quality	55.2	+0.21
Composite	57.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.6	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	4.7	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	6.9%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

148.77

Market Price

230.00

Upside

-35.3%

Margin of Safety	-54.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,424,859,339
Terminal Value PV	3,329,710,946
Total Enterprise Value	4,754,570,285

Assumptions

Base FCF	355,391,060
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

36.34%

Full Kelly

18.17%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 55/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

67.16

RSI(14)

1.9311

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (-0.2% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 1d since high
Sector Outperformance	+3.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	67.16	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.9311	BULLISH
Ma Cross	209.36 / 233.72	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	1.69x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	300.40
Bollinger Upper	226.87
SMA(200)	233.72
SMA(50)	209.36
SMA(20)	212.34
Current Price	230.00
Bollinger Lower	197.82
52-Week Low	187.00
ATR(14)	5.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

55%

Buying Climax Sign of Strength

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 1.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	0.42x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	0.38x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	6.43x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	1.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	221.25	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	221.25	Base line
Senkou A	221.25	Leading span A
Senkou B	213.00	Leading span B
Cloud	213.00 – 221.25	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	228.00	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	210.00	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH