Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company

2270.SR · Consumer Defensive · · SAR

224.40 SAR

0.00 (-2.65%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 12:45 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 46

Momentum 54

Fundamental 89

Macro 73

Liquidity 69

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	46.2	10%
Momentum	53.9	5%
Fundamental	88.9	40%
Macro	72.8	15%
Liquidity	68.9	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	224.70
Stop Loss	212.52 (5.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	236.88 (+5.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	249.06 (+10.8%)

ATR(14)	6.09 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	12.18
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	61.4	+0.46
Momentum	49.0	-0.04
Quality	55.2	+0.21
Composite	55.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 64.57 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.1	18.0	-10% below
P/B Ratio	4.6	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	6.9%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

148.77

Market Price

224.40

Upside

-33.7%

Margin of Safety	-50.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,424,859,309
Terminal Value PV	3,329,710,870
Total Enterprise Value	4,754,570,179

Assumptions

Base FCF	355,391,052
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

47.29%

Full Kelly

23.64%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 73/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

62.9

RSI(14)

1.6679

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (-1.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (1d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+3.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	62.9	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.6679	BULLISH
Ma Cross	209.29 / 233.71	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	2.03x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	300.40
Bollinger Upper	226.02
SMA(200)	233.71
SMA(50)	209.29
SMA(20)	212.18
Current Price	224.40
Bollinger Lower	198.34
52-Week Low	187.00
ATR(14)	6.09

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

55%

Sign of Strength Buying Climax

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 1.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	0.41x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	0.38x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	6.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Stopping Volume	2.03x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	221.25	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	221.25	Base line
Senkou A	221.25	Leading span A
Senkou B	213.00	Leading span B
Cloud	213.00 – 221.25	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	224.70	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	210.00	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH