Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company

2300.SR · Basic Materials · · SAR

64.15 SAR

+0.00 (1.34%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:30 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 85

Momentum 72

Fundamental 67

Macro 59

Liquidity 29

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	20%
Trend & RS	85.1	30%
Momentum	72.1	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	59.4	20%
Liquidity	29.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	64.15
Stop Loss	60.15 (6.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	68.15 (+6.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	72.15 (+12.5%)

ATR(14)	2.00 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	4.00
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	65.0	+0.60
Momentum	72.1	+0.88
Quality	43.6	-0.25
Composite	60.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	21.4	18.0	+19% above
P/B Ratio	3.7	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	77.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

65.90

Market Price

64.15

Upside

+2.7%

Margin of Safety	+2.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	576,626,742
Terminal Value PV	1,858,746,740
Total Enterprise Value	2,435,373,482

Assumptions

Base FCF	88,394,476
Growth Rate (5yr)	19.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

49.49%

Full Kelly

24.74%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

50.22

RSI(14)

0.3335

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+15.6% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (24d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+9.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	50.22	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3335	BULLISH
Ma Cross	63.58 / 58.45	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.54x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	70.55
Bollinger Upper	66.46
SMA(200)	58.45
SMA(50)	63.58
SMA(20)	63.57
Current Price	64.15
Bollinger Lower	60.69
52-Week Low	47.00
ATR(14)	2.0

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

100%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.26x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	No Demand	0.44x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-03	No Demand	0.49x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-06	No Demand	0.49x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-07	Normal	0.54x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	65.58	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	65.70	Base line
Senkou A	65.64	Leading span A
Senkou B	62.58	Leading span B
Cloud	62.58 – 65.64	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	64.15	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	67.95	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 60.69 – 66.46 | KC: 60.7 – 66.45

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bullish	RSI	13

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 60.85 Anchor: 2026-03-03 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +5.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/2300.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	2.37B
P/E (TTM)	21.45
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	3.67
EPS	2.99

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	19.9%
Profit Margin	12.7%
ROE	18.6%
Debt/Equity	73.38
Current Ratio	1.49
Dividend Yield	77.0%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	-0.12

Trading Data

64.15

Open

64.15

Day High

64.15

Day Low

92.1K

Volume (0.6x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)