Umm Al-Qura Cement Company

3005.SR · Basic Materials · · SAR

13.91 SAR

+0.00 (0.43%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 79

Momentum 70

Fundamental 67

Macro 55

Liquidity 37

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	79.4	10%
Momentum	70.3	5%
Fundamental	66.7	40%
Macro	55.1	15%
Liquidity	36.8	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	13.91
Stop Loss	13.45 (3.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	14.37 (+3.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	14.83 (+6.6%)

ATR(14)	0.23 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	0.46
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	89.3	+1.57
Momentum	63.9	+0.56
Quality	46.1	-0.16
Composite	66.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.9	18.0	-28% below
P/B Ratio	0.9	2.5	Below

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

22.22

Market Price

13.91

Upside

+59.7%

Margin of Safety	+37.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	334,307,461
Terminal Value PV	887,843,939
Total Enterprise Value	1,222,151,400

Assumptions

Base FCF	47,519,999
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

40.29%

Full Kelly

20.15%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

57.29

RSI(14)

0.0448

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+20.1% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+19.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	57.29	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0448	BEARISH
Ma Cross	13.78 / 13.17	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.72x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	16.34
Bollinger Upper	14.0
SMA(200)	13.17
SMA(50)	13.78
SMA(20)	13.77
Current Price	13.91
Bollinger Lower	13.55
52-Week Low	11.08
ATR(14)	0.23

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

50%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-05	Normal	0.64x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.53x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.48x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.6x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	1.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	13.80	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	13.83	Base line
Senkou A	13.82	Leading span A
Senkou B	13.70	Leading span B
Cloud	13.70 – 13.82	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	13.91	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	13.82	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 34 bars Momentum: BULLISH

BB: 13.55 – 14.0 | KC: 13.41 – 14.14

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago
Hidden Bearish	MACD	12
Regular Bullish	MACD	13
Regular Bearish	RSI	21
Hidden Bullish	RSI	24

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 13.16 Anchor: 2026-03-03 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +5.7%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/3005.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	765.05M
P/E (TTM)	12.88
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	0.87
EPS	1.08

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	46.1%
Profit Margin	19.4%
ROE	7.0%
Debt/Equity	18.25
Current Ratio	2.10
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.42

Trading Data

13.91

Open

13.91

Day High

13.91

Day Low

112.7K

Volume (1.1x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)