Saudi Real Estate Company

4020.SR · Real Estate · · SAR

15.19 SAR

0.00 (-0.07%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:31 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 61

Momentum 54

Fundamental (0%) 67

Macro 59

Liquidity 29

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	61.0	20%
Momentum	54.1	20%
Fundamental	66.7	0%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	29.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	15.19
Stop Loss	14.51 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	15.87 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	16.55 (+8.9%)

ATR(14)	0.34 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	0.68
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	93.3	+1.73
Momentum	54.1	+0.16
Quality	62.9	+0.52
Composite	70.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	8.8	18.0	-51% below
P/B Ratio	1.0	1.5	Below

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

18.41

Market Price

15.19

Upside

+21.2%

Margin of Safety	+17.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	2,068,784,176
Terminal Value PV	4,834,479,529
Total Enterprise Value	6,903,263,705

Assumptions

Base FCF	515,999,987
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

34.94%

Full Kelly

17.47%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 53/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.2%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

37.64

RSI(14)

-0.2535

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (-4.7% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (38d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-9.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	37.64	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.2535	BEARISH
Ma Cross	16.05 / 14.61	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.37x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	18.42
Bollinger Upper	16.24
SMA(200)	14.61
SMA(50)	16.05
SMA(20)	15.61
Current Price	15.19
Bollinger Lower	14.98
52-Week Low	12.30
ATR(14)	0.34

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.58x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.37x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	15.51	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	15.71	Base line
Senkou A	15.61	Leading span A
Senkou B	16.68	Leading span B
Cloud	15.61 – 16.68	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	15.19	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	16.19	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 14.98 – 16.24 | KC: 15.14 – 16.09

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago
Hidden Bearish	MACD	9
Hidden Bearish	RSI	13
Regular Bullish	RSI	20

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 14.87 Anchor: 2025-12-30 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +2.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/4020.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	5.70B
P/E (TTM)	8.83
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	0.97
EPS	1.72

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	-11.4%
Profit Margin	41.0%
ROE	13.3%
Debt/Equity	50.86
Current Ratio	1.98
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.33

Trading Data

15.19

Open

15.19

Day High

15.19

Day Low

239.4K

Volume (0.4x avg)

Recent News (1)

Saudi Real Estate And 2 Emerging Small Caps With Promising Potential

Simply Wall St. · 2025-10-31

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)