The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia

4030.SR · Industrials · · SAR

32.00 SAR

0.00 (-0.62%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 66

Momentum 58

Fundamental (0%) 78

Macro 55

Liquidity 47

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	65.5	20%
Momentum	58.2	20%
Fundamental	77.8	0%
Macro	55.1	15%
Liquidity	46.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	32.00
Stop Loss	30.84 (3.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	33.16 (+3.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	34.32 (+7.2%)

ATR(14)	0.58 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	1.16
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	91.1	+1.64
Momentum	58.2	+0.33
Quality	66.3	+0.65
Composite	71.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	7.3	18.0	-59% below
P/B Ratio	1.7	3.0	Below
Dividend Yield	3.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

136.52

Market Price

32.00

Upside

+326.6%

Margin of Safety	+76.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	24,844,533,655
Terminal Value PV	101,140,254,844
Total Enterprise Value	125,984,788,499

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,233,671,950
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

36.27%

Full Kelly

18.13%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 55/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.74

RSI(14)

-0.1635

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+4.8% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (50d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+7.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.74	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.1635	BEARISH
Ma Cross	32.82 / 30.5	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.79x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	39.48
Bollinger Upper	33.4
SMA(200)	30.5
SMA(50)	32.82
SMA(20)	32.36
Current Price	32.00
Bollinger Lower	31.33
52-Week Low	21.08
ATR(14)	0.58

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

75%

Selling Climax

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-05	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	No Supply	0.28x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-07-07	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.42x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	32.14	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	32.88	Base line
Senkou A	32.51	Leading span A
Senkou B	34.94	Leading span B
Cloud	32.51 – 34.94	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	32.00	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	32.82	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 31.33 – 33.4 | KC: 31.4 – 33.33

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 29.76 Anchor: 2025-08-03 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +7.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/4030.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	29.53B
P/E (TTM)	7.31
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.70
EPS	4.38

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	1.3%
Profit Margin	30.8%
ROE	25.2%
Debt/Equity	64.08
Current Ratio	2.14
Dividend Yield	3.1%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.36

Trading Data

32.00

Open

32.00

Day High

32.00

Day Low

1.13M

Volume (0.8x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)