Saudi Public Transport Company

4040.SR · Industrials · · SAR

11.91 SAR

0.00 (-0.08%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:31 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 82

Momentum 73

Fundamental 32

Macro 59

Liquidity 27

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	10%
Trend & RS	81.8	10%
Momentum	72.8	5%
Fundamental	31.5	40%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	27.1	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	11.91
Stop Loss	11.25 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	12.57 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	13.23 (+11.1%)

ATR(14)	0.33 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	0.66
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	87.9	+1.52
Momentum	72.8	+0.91
Quality	34.3	-0.63
Composite	65.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 3 /9 — Weak

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.48 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.5	18.0	-30% below
P/B Ratio	1.4	3.0	Below

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

8.03

Market Price

11.91

Upside

-32.6%

Margin of Safety	-48.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	361,935,939
Terminal Value PV	642,147,224
Total Enterprise Value	1,004,083,163

Assumptions

Base FCF	95,000,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

31.62%

Full Kelly

15.81%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 49/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 7.9%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

55.37

RSI(14)

0.1039

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+8.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (21d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+6.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	55.37	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.1039	BULLISH
Ma Cross	11.54 / 10.6	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.38x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	13.80
Bollinger Upper	12.27
SMA(200)	10.6
SMA(50)	11.54
SMA(20)	11.77
Current Price	11.91
Bollinger Lower	11.27
52-Week Low	8.00
ATR(14)	0.33

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	2.26x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.56x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	No Supply	0.38x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	11.87	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	11.98	Base line
Senkou A	11.92	Leading span A
Senkou B	11.84	Leading span B
Cloud	11.84 – 11.92	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	11.91	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	11.37	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH

BB: 11.27 – 12.27 | KC: 11.31 – 12.22

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bullish	RSI	29

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 11.42 Anchor: 2026-03-02 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +4.3%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/4040.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	1.49B
P/E (TTM)	12.54
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.42
EPS	0.95

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	-0.1%
Profit Margin	6.3%
ROE	17.7%
Debt/Equity	116.70
Current Ratio	1.02
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.15

Trading Data

11.91

Open

11.91

Day High

11.91

Day Low

437.2K

Volume (0.5x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)