Baazeem Trading Company

4051.SR · Industrials · · SAR

5.55 SAR

+0.00 (1.28%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:30 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 40

Momentum 63

Fundamental 67

Macro 59

Liquidity 68

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	20%
Trend & RS	40.1	30%
Momentum	62.8	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	59.4	20%
Liquidity	67.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	5.55
Stop Loss	5.39 (2.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	5.71 (+2.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	5.87 (+5.8%)

ATR(14)	0.08 (1.4%)
Risk per Share	0.16
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	71.4	+0.85
Momentum	57.1	+0.28
Quality	62.3	+0.49
Composite	63.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.6	18.0	+14% above
P/B Ratio	2.7	3.0	Below
Dividend Yield	3.3%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

3.96

Market Price

5.55

Upside

-28.6%

Margin of Safety	-40.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	121,317,583
Terminal Value PV	280,011,676
Total Enterprise Value	401,329,259

Assumptions

Base FCF	21,870,001
Growth Rate (5yr)	15.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

33.52%

Full Kelly

16.76%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 51/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

60.6

RSI(14)

0.0074

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+2.7% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Industrials)
RS New High	No (48d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	60.6	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0074	BULLISH
Ma Cross	5.51 / 5.67	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	4.33x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	7.10
Bollinger Upper	5.55
SMA(200)	5.67
SMA(50)	5.51
SMA(20)	5.46
Current Price	5.55
Bollinger Lower	5.37
52-Week Low	4.90
ATR(14)	0.08

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION C Confidence

78%

Upthrust (potential)

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.5 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	No Demand	0.29x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-06	No Demand	0.29x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-07	Normal	4.33x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	5.51	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	5.49	Base line
Senkou A	5.50	Leading span A
Senkou B	5.74	Leading span B
Cloud	5.50 – 5.74	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	5.55	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	5.51	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL