National Company for Learning and Education
4291.SR · Consumer Defensive · · SARFahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)
65
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
74
Momentum
72
Fundamental
78
Macro
59
Liquidity
34
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 74.1 | 10% |
| Momentum | 72.5 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 40% |
| Macro | 59.4 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 33.7 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 141.80 |
| Stop Loss | 134.20 (5.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 149.40 (+5.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 157.00 (+10.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.80 (2.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 7.60 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 27.2 | -0.91 | |
| Momentum | 72.5 | +0.90 | |
| Quality | 40.3 | -0.39 | |
| Composite | 46.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
7.66
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.2 | 18.0 | +62% above |
| P/B Ratio | 6.6 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
87.74
vs
Market Price
141.80
Upside
-38.1%
| Margin of Safety | -61.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 949,969,668 |
| Terminal Value PV | 2,822,986,475 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 3,772,956,143 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 166,840,000 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 14.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.5%
Recommended Size
42.85%
Full Kelly
21.43%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 65/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
BEAR
Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
52.56
RSI(14)
1.4083
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
35
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs TASI | ↑ RISING (+13.1% vs TASI 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (8d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +8.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs TASI
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 52.56 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.4083 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 136.41 / 129.17 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.8x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 183.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 146.28 |
| SMA(200) | 129.17 |
| SMA(50) | 136.41 |
| SMA(20) | 142.71 |
| Current Price | 141.80 |
| Bollinger Lower | 139.15 |
| 52-Week Low | 105.80 |
| ATR(14) | 3.8 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
100%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Normal | 1.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-09-02 | Normal | 0.73x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-09-03 | No Supply | 0.43x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
| 2026-09-06 | No Supply | 0.43x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
| 2026-09-07 | Normal | 0.8x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 143.65 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 142.25 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 142.95 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 137.20 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 137.20 – 142.95 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 141.80 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 145.20 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 2/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
8 bars
Momentum:
BEARISH FADING
BB: 139.15 – 146.28 | KC: 137.53 – 147.9
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 9 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 128.71
Anchor: 2026-03-24 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+10.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/4291.SR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 6.10B |
| P/E (TTM) | 29.24 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 6.62 |
| EPS | 4.85 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 14.8% |
| Profit Margin | 23.6% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | 60.49 |
| Current Ratio | 0.96 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | -0.02 |
Trading Data
141.80
Open
141.80
Day High
141.80
Day Low
17.5K
Volume (0.6x avg)
Insider Activity
Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)