National Company for Learning and Education

4291.SR · Consumer Defensive · · SAR

141.80 SAR

0.00 (-0.14%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:31 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 74

Momentum 72

Fundamental 56

Macro 59

Liquidity 34

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	74.1	10%
Momentum	72.5	5%
Fundamental	55.6	40%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	33.7	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	141.80
Stop Loss	134.20 (5.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	149.40 (+5.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	157.00 (+10.7%)

ATR(14)	3.80 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	7.60
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	40.9	-0.37
Momentum	72.5	+0.90
Quality	40.3	-0.39
Composite	51.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	29.2	18.0	+62% above
P/B Ratio	6.6	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.8%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

87.74

Market Price

141.80

Upside

-38.1%

Margin of Safety	-61.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	949,969,718
Terminal Value PV	2,822,986,628
Total Enterprise Value	3,772,956,346

Assumptions

Base FCF	166,840,009
Growth Rate (5yr)	14.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

37.02%

Full Kelly

18.51%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

52.56

RSI(14)

1.4083

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+13.1% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (8d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+8.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	52.56	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.4083	BEARISH
Ma Cross	136.41 / 129.17	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.8x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	183.00
Bollinger Upper	146.28
SMA(200)	129.17
SMA(50)	136.41
SMA(20)	142.71
Current Price	141.80
Bollinger Lower	139.15
52-Week Low	105.80
ATR(14)	3.8

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

100%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	No Supply	0.43x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-06	No Supply	0.43x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-07	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	143.65	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	142.25	Base line
Senkou A	142.95	Leading span A
Senkou B	137.20	Leading span B
Cloud	137.20 – 142.95	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	141.80	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	145.20	Bearish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 8 bars Momentum: BEARISH FADING

BB: 139.15 – 146.28 | KC: 137.53 – 147.9

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bearish	RSI	9

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 128.71 Anchor: 2026-03-24 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +10.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/4291.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	6.10B
P/E (TTM)	29.24
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	6.62
EPS	4.85

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	14.8%
Profit Margin	23.6%
ROE	N/A
Debt/Equity	60.49
Current Ratio	0.96
Dividend Yield	1.8%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	-0.02

Trading Data

141.80

Open

141.80

Day High

141.80

Day Low

17.5K

Volume (0.6x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)