Saudi Energy Company

5110.SR · Utilities · · SAR

17.13 SAR

0.00 (-0.98%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:46 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 93

Momentum 80

Fundamental 39

Macro 76

Liquidity 38

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	92.7	30%
Momentum	80.2	15%
Fundamental	38.7	10%
Macro	75.8	20%
Liquidity	38.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	17.08
Stop Loss	16.32 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	17.84 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	18.60 (+8.9%)

ATR(14)	0.38 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	0.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	83.7	+1.35
Momentum	80.2	+1.21
Quality	25.2	-0.99
Composite	63.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 0.54 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	17.8	16.0	+12% above
P/B Ratio	0.8	1.8	Below
Dividend Yield	4.0%	3.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

15.49

Market Price

17.13

Upside

-9.6%

Margin of Safety	-10.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,694,095,541
Terminal Value PV	48,861,037,798
Total Enterprise Value	64,555,133,339

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,199,944,050
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.3%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

49.14%

Full Kelly

24.57%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

59.46

RSI(14)

0.3186

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+25.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Utilities)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 1d since high
Sector Outperformance	+17.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	59.46	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3186	BEARISH
Ma Cross	15.66 / 14.41	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.15x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	17.92
Bollinger Upper	17.28
SMA(200)	14.41
SMA(50)	15.66
SMA(20)	16.86
Current Price	17.13
Bollinger Lower	16.43
52-Week Low	13.00
ATR(14)	0.38

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	2.35x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	No Demand	0.44x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-11	Normal	1.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	No Demand	0.15x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	16.84	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	16.67	Base line
Senkou A	16.75	Leading span A
Senkou B	14.91	Leading span B
Cloud	14.91 – 16.75	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	17.08	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	16.13	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH