Elm Company

7203.SR · Technology · · SAR

598.50 SAR

0.00 (-1.72%)

● Updated 2026-11-06 17:19 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 47

Momentum 50

Fundamental (0%) 78

Macro 57

Liquidity 68

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	47.4	20%
Momentum	49.6	20%
Fundamental	77.8	0%
Macro	56.8	15%
Liquidity	68.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	598.50
Stop Loss	559.58 (6.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	637.42 (+6.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	676.34 (+13.0%)

ATR(14)	19.46 (3.2%)
Risk per Share	38.92
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	33.8	-0.65
Momentum	45.1	-0.19
Quality	68.9	+0.75
Composite	49.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	21.4	28.0	-23% below
P/B Ratio	9.6	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.7%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

485.46

Market Price

598.50

Upside

-18.9%

Margin of Safety	-23.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	8,962,285,887
Terminal Value PV	28,836,141,842
Total Enterprise Value	37,798,427,729

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,739,091,927
Growth Rate (5yr)	10.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.6%

Recommended Size

33.44%

Full Kelly

16.72%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 51/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

57.61

RSI(14)

6.0095

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+7.2% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+2.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	57.61	NEUTRAL
Macd	6.0095	BULLISH
Ma Cross	586.56 / 626.1	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.31x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	834.00
Bollinger Upper	627.68
SMA(200)	626.1
SMA(50)	586.56
SMA(20)	563.1
Current Price	598.50
Bollinger Lower	498.52
52-Week Low	504.50
ATR(14)	19.46

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

75%

Buying Climax

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-11-01	Normal	2.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-02	Normal	1.39x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-03	Normal	1.49x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-04	Normal	1.25x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-05	Normal	1.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	569.25	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	568.00	Base line
Senkou A	568.62	Leading span A
Senkou B	582.50	Leading span B
Cloud	568.62 – 582.50	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	598.50	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	568.00	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 498.52 – 627.68 | KC: 533.96 – 592.24

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 618.40 Anchor: 2026-04-05 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -3.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/7203.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	46.60B
P/E (TTM)	21.44
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	9.61
EPS	27.92

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	10.1%
Profit Margin	22.6%
ROE	57.1%
Debt/Equity	46.84
Current Ratio	1.95
Dividend Yield	1.7%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.43

Trading Data

598.50

Open

598.50

Day High

598.50

Day Low

156.8K

Volume (1.7x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)