The Mediterranean and Gulf Cooperative Insurance and Reinsurance Company

8030.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

14.42 SAR

0.00 (-1.77%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:45 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 39

Momentum 47

Fundamental 78

Macro 76

Liquidity 25

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	39.3	30%
Momentum	47.0	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	75.8	20%
Liquidity	24.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	14.42
Stop Loss	13.66 (5.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	15.18 (+5.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	15.94 (+10.5%)

ATR(14)	0.38 (2.6%)
Risk per Share	0.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	48.2	-0.07
Momentum	47.0	-0.12
Quality	35.6	-0.57
Composite	43.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	48.1	18.0	+167% above
P/B Ratio	1.2	2.5	Below

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

6.17

Market Price

14.42

Upside

-57.2%

Margin of Safety	-133.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	233,268,762
Terminal Value PV	619,508,330
Total Enterprise Value	852,777,092

Assumptions

Base FCF	33,157,894
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

34.66%

Full Kelly

17.33%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 53/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.2%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

53.53

RSI(14)

0.0379

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (-4.5% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (53d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-2.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	53.53	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0379	BULLISH
Ma Cross	14.23 / 14.63	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.46x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	21.80
Bollinger Upper	14.9
SMA(200)	14.63
SMA(50)	14.23
SMA(20)	14.26
Current Price	14.42
Bollinger Lower	13.63
52-Week Low	11.04
ATR(14)	0.38

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION C Confidence

100%

Upthrust (potential)

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.5 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.64x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Upthrust	4.49x	High volume up-bar closing near low — failed breakout (Upthrust)
2026-05-11	Normal	1.38x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	14.51	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	14.45	Base line
Senkou A	14.48	Leading span A
Senkou B	14.47	Leading span B
Cloud	14.47 – 14.48	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	14.42	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	13.72	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 13.63 – 14.9 | KC: 13.76 – 14.76

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Hidden Bearish	RSI	25
Regular Bullish	RSI	26

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 14.18 Anchor: 2025-12-29 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +1.7%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/8030.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	1.99B
P/E (TTM)	48.07
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.25
EPS	0.30

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	33.4%
Profit Margin	0.9%
ROE	3.1%
Debt/Equity	1.26
Current Ratio	2.56
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.72

Trading Data

14.42

Open

14.42

Day High

14.42

Day Low

339.5K

Volume (0.4x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)