Al Rajhi Company for Cooperative Insurance

8230.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

104.10 SAR

0.00 (-2.44%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 12:46 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 85

Momentum 65

Fundamental 83

Macro 73

Liquidity 30

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	10%
Trend & RS	85.1	10%
Momentum	64.6	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	72.8	15%
Liquidity	30.2	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	104.20
Stop Loss	97.88 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	110.52 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	116.84 (+12.1%)

ATR(14)	3.16 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	6.32
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	58.9	+0.36
Momentum	64.6	+0.58
Quality	65.7	+0.63
Composite	63.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 221.71 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	22.9	18.0	+27% above
P/B Ratio	4.1	2.5	Above

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

60.71

Market Price

104.10

Upside

-41.7%

Margin of Safety	-71.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,575,509,909
Terminal Value PV	4,495,377,529
Total Enterprise Value	6,070,887,438

Assumptions

Base FCF	364,000,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

45.74%

Full Kelly

22.87%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

42.62

RSI(14)

0.4552

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+29.1% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (10d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+30.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	42.62	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.4552	BEARISH
Ma Cross	102.94 / 100.87	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	0.45x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	132.80
Bollinger Upper	116.94
SMA(200)	100.87
SMA(50)	102.94
SMA(20)	110.62
Current Price	104.10
Bollinger Lower	104.31
52-Week Low	67.50
ATR(14)	3.16

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

33%

Selling Climax Buying Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	No Demand	0.57x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-10	No Demand	0.36x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-11	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.45x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	108.65	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	109.75	Base line
Senkou A	109.20	Leading span A
Senkou B	92.20	Leading span B
Cloud	92.20 – 109.20	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	104.20	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	103.30	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 104.31 – 116.94 | KC: 106.12 – 115.13

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago
Hidden Bullish	MACD	15
Regular Bearish	RSI	20
Regular Bearish	RSI	25
Hidden Bullish	RSI	30

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 99.99 Anchor: 2026-02-24 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +4.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/8230.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	10.41B
P/E (TTM)	22.88
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	4.09
EPS	4.55

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	3.8%
Profit Margin	8.9%
ROE	19.7%
Debt/Equity	1.23
Current Ratio	60.16
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.04

Trading Data

104.10

Open

104.10

Day High

104.10

Day Low

102.4K

Volume (0.2x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)