Al Rajhi Company for Cooperative Insurance

8230.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

104.60 SAR

0.00 (-1.97%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:46 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 85

Momentum 65

Fundamental 67

Macro 76

Liquidity 30

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	85.1	10%
Momentum	64.8	5%
Fundamental	66.7	40%
Macro	75.8	15%
Liquidity	30.2	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	104.40
Stop Loss	98.12 (6.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	110.68 (+6.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	116.96 (+12.0%)

ATR(14)	3.14 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	6.28
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	61.0	+0.44
Momentum	64.8	+0.59
Quality	65.7	+0.63
Composite	63.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	23.0	18.0	+28% above
P/B Ratio	4.1	2.5	Above

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

60.71

Market Price

104.60

Upside

-42.0%

Margin of Safety	-72.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,575,509,947
Terminal Value PV	4,495,377,642
Total Enterprise Value	6,070,887,589

Assumptions

Base FCF	364,000,009
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

41.58%

Full Kelly

20.79%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 63/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

42.98

RSI(14)

0.4712

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+29.0% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (10d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+31.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	42.98	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.4712	BEARISH
Ma Cross	102.95 / 100.87	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.32x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	132.80
Bollinger Upper	116.91
SMA(200)	100.87
SMA(50)	102.95
SMA(20)	110.63
Current Price	104.60
Bollinger Lower	104.36
52-Week Low	67.50
ATR(14)	3.14

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

33%

Selling Climax Buying Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	No Demand	0.57x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-10	No Demand	0.36x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-05-11	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.32x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	108.65	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	109.75	Base line
Senkou A	109.20	Leading span A
Senkou B	92.20	Leading span B
Cloud	92.20 – 109.20	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	104.40	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	103.30	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 104.36 – 116.91 | KC: 106.15 – 115.12

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago
Hidden Bullish	MACD	15
Regular Bearish	RSI	20
Regular Bearish	RSI	25
Hidden Bullish	RSI	30

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 99.98 Anchor: 2026-02-24 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +4.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/8230.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	10.46B
P/E (TTM)	22.99
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	4.11
EPS	4.55

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	3.8%
Profit Margin	8.9%
ROE	19.7%
Debt/Equity	1.23
Current Ratio	60.16
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.04

Trading Data

104.60

Open

104.60

Day High

104.60

Day Low

79.0K

Volume (0.2x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)