Gulf Insurance Group

8250.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

28.30 SAR

0.00 (-0.35%)

● Updated 2026-05-14 11:16 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 92

Momentum 78

Fundamental 89

Macro 68

Liquidity 22

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	20%
Trend & RS	92.3	30%
Momentum	77.8	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	67.5	20%
Liquidity	21.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	28.30
Stop Loss	26.90 (5.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	29.70 (+5.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	31.10 (+9.9%)

ATR(14)	0.70 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	1.40
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	88.0	+1.52
Momentum	77.8	+1.11
Quality	59.2	+0.37
Composite	75.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 39.77 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	11.8	18.0	-34% below
P/B Ratio	1.2	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	4.2%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

24.68

Market Price

28.30

Upside

-12.8%

Margin of Safety	-14.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	437,997,180
Terminal Value PV	857,485,809
Total Enterprise Value	1,295,482,989

Assumptions

Base FCF	100,800,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

50.84%

Full Kelly

25.42%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 79/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

76.32

RSI(14)

1.0201

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+17.8% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 2d since high
Sector Outperformance	+14.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	76.32	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	1.0201	BULLISH
Ma Cross	24.78 / 24.23	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.25x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	29.04
Bollinger Upper	29.21
SMA(200)	24.23
SMA(50)	24.78
SMA(20)	26.0
Current Price	28.30
Bollinger Lower	22.8
52-Week Low	20.84
ATR(14)	0.7

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

50%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-10	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	2.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-13	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-14	Normal	0.25x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	26.90	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	26.66	Base line
Senkou A	26.78	Leading span A
Senkou B	25.20	Leading span B
Cloud	25.20 – 26.78	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	28.30	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	25.20	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 22.8 – 29.21 | KC: 25.04 – 26.97

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bearish	RSI	22

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 24.52 Anchor: 2025-12-29 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +15.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/8250.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	1.49B
P/E (TTM)	11.79
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.24
EPS	2.40

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	6.8%
Profit Margin	7.9%
ROE	11.0%
Debt/Equity	2.00
Current Ratio	5.79
Dividend Yield	4.2%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.28

Trading Data

28.30

Open

28.30

Day High

28.30

Day Low

52.7K

Volume (0.3x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)