Gulf Insurance Group

8250.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

28.24 SAR

0.00 (-0.42%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:46 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 92

Momentum 77

Fundamental 78

Macro 73

Liquidity 22

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	20%
Trend & RS	91.9	30%
Momentum	76.7	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	72.7	20%
Liquidity	21.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	28.44
Stop Loss	27.06 (4.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	29.82 (+4.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	31.20 (+9.7%)

ATR(14)	0.69 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	1.38
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	88.6	+1.54
Momentum	76.7	+1.07
Quality	59.2	+0.37
Composite	74.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	11.8	18.0	-35% below
P/B Ratio	1.2	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	4.2%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

24.68

Market Price

28.24

Upside

-12.6%

Margin of Safety	-14.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	437,997,160
Terminal Value PV	857,485,773
Total Enterprise Value	1,295,482,933

Assumptions

Base FCF	100,799,996
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

50.67%

Full Kelly

25.34%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

79.48

RSI(14)

0.913

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+17.9% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+19.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	79.48	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	0.913	BULLISH
Ma Cross	24.53 / 24.19	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.31x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	28.42
Bollinger Upper	28.49
SMA(200)	24.19
SMA(50)	24.53
SMA(20)	25.72
Current Price	28.24
Bollinger Lower	22.95
52-Week Low	20.84
ATR(14)	0.69

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

64%

Sign of Strength Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 3.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	7.37x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	3.01x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	26.45	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	26.26	Base line
Senkou A	26.35	Leading span A
Senkou B	24.90	Leading span B
Cloud	24.90 – 26.35	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	28.44	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	24.20	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH

BB: 22.95 – 28.49 | KC: 24.8 – 26.64

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bearish	RSI	20

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 24.35 Anchor: 2025-12-29 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +16.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/8250.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	1.48B
P/E (TTM)	11.77
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.23
EPS	2.40

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	6.8%
Profit Margin	7.9%
ROE	11.0%
Debt/Equity	2.00
Current Ratio	5.79
Dividend Yield	4.2%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.28

Trading Data

28.24

Open

28.24

Day High

28.24

Day Low

50.1K

Volume (0.3x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)