Itmam Consultancy Company
9625.SR · Industrials · · SARFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
44
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
42
Momentum
44
Fundamental
56
Macro
55
Liquidity
65
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 42.1 | 30% |
| Momentum | 43.8 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.7 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 64.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 13.90 |
| Stop Loss | 13.52 (2.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 14.28 (+2.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 14.66 (+5.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.19 (1.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 0.38 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 74.7 | +0.99 | |
| Momentum | 39.8 | -0.41 | |
| Quality | 74.2 | +0.97 | |
| Composite | 62.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.2 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 2.7 | 3.0 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
6.85
vs
Market Price
13.90
Upside
-50.7%
| Margin of Safety | -103.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 51,844,466 |
| Terminal Value PV | 91,982,523 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 143,826,989 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 13,608,000 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 12.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
27.88%
Full Kelly
13.94%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
44.16
RSI(14)
0.0043
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
30
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs TASI | ↑ RISING (+1.2% vs TASI 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (4d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +10.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs TASI
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 44.16 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.0043 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 14.31 / 14.73 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 3.8x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 16.80 |
| Bollinger Upper | 14.72 |
| SMA(200) | 14.73 |
| SMA(50) | 14.31 |
| SMA(20) | 14.11 |
| Current Price | 13.90 |
| Bollinger Lower | 13.5 |
| 52-Week Low | 12.20 |
| ATR(14) | 0.19 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
56%
Selling Climax
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Normal | 0.32x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.36x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.36x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Stopping Volume | 6.93x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 3.8x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 14.45 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 14.29 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 14.37 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 14.13 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 14.13 – 14.37 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 13.90 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 13.57 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 13.5 – 14.72 | KC: 13.95 – 14.27
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 14.36
Anchor: 2026-04-06 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-3.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/9625.SR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 291.90M |
| P/E (TTM) | 17.16 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.74 |
| EPS | 0.81 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -26.0% |
| Profit Margin | 24.0% |
| ROE | 17.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.30 |
| Current Ratio | 13.56 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
13.90
Open
13.90
Day High
13.90
Day Low
2.9K
Volume (2.9x avg)
Insider Activity
Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)