Airbnb, Inc.

ABNB · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

181.94 USD

0.00 (-1.79%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 98

Momentum 87

Fundamental 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 51

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	98.4	10%
Momentum	86.9	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	51.3	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	181.94
Stop Loss	171.56 (5.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	192.32 (+5.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	202.70 (+11.4%)

ATR(14)	5.19 (2.9%)
Risk per Share	10.38
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	6.3	-1.75
Momentum	86.9	+1.48
Quality	58.6	+0.35
Composite	50.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 27.06 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	41.5	18.0	+131% above
P/B Ratio	13.8	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

98.55

Market Price

181.94

Upside

-45.8%

Margin of Safety	-84.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	9,013,971,293
Terminal Value PV	32,332,129,214
Total Enterprise Value	41,346,100,507

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,470,031,564
Growth Rate (5yr)	16.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.63%

Full Kelly

24.31%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

56.33

RSI(14)

6.2747

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+31.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (9d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+31.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	56.33	NEUTRAL
Macd	6.2747	BEARISH
Ma Cross	162.96 / 139.41	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.66x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	193.45
Bollinger Upper	191.04
SMA(200)	139.41
SMA(50)	162.96
SMA(20)	184.95
Current Price	181.94
Bollinger Lower	178.86
52-Week Low	110.81
ATR(14)	5.19

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.48x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.97x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	186.30	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	171.05	Base line
Senkou A	178.67	Leading span A
Senkou B	164.59	Leading span B
Cloud	164.59 – 178.67	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	181.94	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	151.52	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH