Airbnb, Inc.
ABNB · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
72
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
86
Momentum
70
Fundamental
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
76
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 85.6 | 30% |
| Momentum | 70.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 76.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 170.13 |
| Stop Loss | 158.91 (6.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 181.35 (+6.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 192.57 (+13.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.61 (3.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 11.22 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 12.5 | -1.50 | |
| Momentum | 64.1 | +0.57 | |
| Quality | 64.3 | +0.57 | |
| Composite | 47.0 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.8 | 18.0 | +115% above |
| P/B Ratio | 10.9 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
108.50
vs
Market Price
170.13
Upside
-36.2%
| Margin of Safety | -56.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 13,751,146,291 |
| Terminal Value PV | 51,216,891,901 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 64,968,038,192 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,102,935,380 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 18.9% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
47.17%
Full Kelly
23.58%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 72/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
51.28
RSI(14)
0.9057
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
88
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+0.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (52d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -5.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 51.28 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.9057 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 168.96 / 147.5 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 2.43x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 193.45 |
| Bollinger Upper | 178.97 |
| SMA(200) | 147.5 |
| SMA(50) | 168.96 |
| SMA(20) | 170.26 |
| Current Price | 170.13 |
| Bollinger Lower | 161.55 |
| 52-Week Low | 110.81 |
| ATR(14) | 5.61 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
100%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.57x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.99x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.51x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.43x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 172.08 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 168.93 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 170.50 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 170.72 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 170.50 – 170.72 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 170.13 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 160.47 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 2/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 161.55 – 178.97 | KC: 162.52 – 177.99
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 144.74
Anchor: 2025-11-20 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+17.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ABNB
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 101.87B |
| P/E (TTM) | 38.75 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 10.93 |
| EPS | 4.39 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 18.9% |
| Profit Margin | 23.0% |
| ROE | 35.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 25.46 |
| Current Ratio | 1.73 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
170.13
Open
170.13
Day High
170.13
Day Low
9.07M
Volume (1.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)