Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

ADP · Technology · · USD

277.62 USD

0.00 (-2.08%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 84

Momentum 84

Fundamental 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 54

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	84.2	30%
Momentum	84.5	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	53.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	277.62
Stop Loss	265.38 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	289.86 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	302.10 (+8.8%)

ATR(14)	6.12 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	12.24
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	33.2	-0.67
Momentum	84.5	+1.38
Quality	58.7	+0.35
Composite	58.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 13.28 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	25.4	28.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	18.3	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.5%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

165.82

Market Price

277.62

Upside

-40.3%

Margin of Safety	-67.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	16,359,497,127
Terminal Value PV	49,513,020,616
Total Enterprise Value	65,872,517,743

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,476,843,474
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

49.71%

Full Kelly

24.86%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

53.89

RSI(14)

5.954

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+15.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+26.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	53.89	NEUTRAL
Macd	5.954	BEARISH
Ma Cross	262.0 / 234.91	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.08x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	299.22
Bollinger Upper	290.73
SMA(200)	234.91
SMA(50)	262.0
SMA(20)	278.36
Current Price	277.62
Bollinger Lower	265.99
52-Week Low	188.16
ATR(14)	6.12

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	282.23	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	273.50	Base line
Senkou A	277.86	Leading span A
Senkou B	252.02	Leading span B
Cloud	252.02 – 277.86	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	277.62	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	266.46	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL