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Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

ADP · Technology · · USD
277.62 USD
0.00 (-2.08%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

75
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 84
Momentum 84
Fundamental 67
Macro 64
Liquidity 54
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 84.2 30%
Momentum 84.5 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 53.9 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 277.62
Stop Loss 265.38 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 289.86 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 302.10 (+8.8%)
ATR(14) 6.12 (2.2%)
Risk per Share 12.24
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 27.4 -0.91
Momentum 84.5 +1.38
Quality 58.7 +0.35
Composite 56.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 25.4 28.0 Inline
P/B Ratio 18.3 6.0 Above
Dividend Yield 2.5% 0.8% Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
165.82
vs
Market Price
277.62
Upside
-40.3%
Margin of Safety -67.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)16,359,497,711
Terminal Value PV49,513,022,390
Total Enterprise Value65,872,520,101

Assumptions

Base FCF3,476,843,599
Growth Rate (5yr)6.8%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
48.8%
Full Kelly
24.4%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
53.89
RSI(14)
5.954
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

60
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+15.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance +26.8% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 53.89 NEUTRAL
Macd 5.954 BEARISH
Ma Cross 262.0 / 234.91 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.08x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High299.22
Bollinger Upper290.73
SMA(200)234.91
SMA(50)262.0
SMA(20)278.36
Current Price277.62
Bollinger Lower265.99
52-Week Low188.16
ATR(14)6.12

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 0.77x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.87x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.9x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.15x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.08x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 282.23 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 273.50 Base line
Senkou A 277.86 Leading span A
Senkou B 252.02 Leading span B
Cloud 252.02 – 277.86 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 277.62 Inside Cloud
Chikou Span 266.46 Bullish
Alignment Score 3/4 NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 265.99 – 290.73  |  KC: 269.87 – 286.85

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 232.91 Anchor: 2026-04-10 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +19.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/ADP

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap110.29B
P/E (TTM)25.38
Forward P/EN/A
P/B18.31
EPS10.94

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth6.8%
Profit Margin20.1%
ROE72.2%
Debt/Equity91.44
Current Ratio1.05
Dividend Yield2.5%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.83

Trading Data

277.62
Open
277.62
Day High
277.62
Day Low
2.21M
Volume (0.9x avg)

Recent News (8)

US added 162,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rate holding steady
The Guardian · 2026-09-04
Does Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Look Too Pricey After Slower Hiring?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Intuit Stock Still Carries The Same Swing It Just Delivered
Trefis · 2026-09-04
Why Is Match Group (MTCH) Up 11.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks · 2026-09-03
3 of Wall Street’s Safest High-Yield Dividend Stocks With Over 25-Year Increase Streaks
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-03
Unpacking Q2 Earnings: ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) In The Context Of Other Data & Business Process Services Stocks
StockStory · 2026-09-02
Get Paid 12% A Year To Wait For INTU Stock To Go On Sale
Trefis · 2026-09-02
Treasury Yields Decline From Multi-Year Highs
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-09-02

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —